As an heavy predictit user, I’m not 100% sure what’s going on there either. I’ve already bet the max against Trump winning, and it could be a similar story for other top users. Another possibiilty is that the ongoing Dem primary is providing evidence that Trump will be re-elected, cancelling out the effect of Trump’s poor coronavirus response. In particular, turnout has been alarmingly bad and Biden looks both increasingly likely to be nominated and increasingly senile.
Could you say more about this? What is your ranking in PredictIt / what is your track record? In particular, GJOpen, for example, doesn’t expect Trump to win
I’m in the top 25 oracles on the PI yearly leaderboard, which requires having 1m+ [EDIT:shares sold profitably] and an annual return of at least 300%-400%; not sure how much more to share/how best to measure track record. (One caveat on the leaderboard: many top traders delist themselves for various reasons so “top 25 leaderboard” != “top 25 PI traders”)
What does GJOpen say Trump’s odds are? FWIW I just wrote a comment here on why I think Trump is the clear underdog; my general impression is that top traders on PI tend to be long Biden overall as well
As an heavy predictit user, I’m not 100% sure what’s going on there either. I’ve already bet the max against Trump winning, and it could be a similar story for other top users. Another possibiilty is that the ongoing Dem primary is providing evidence that Trump will be re-elected, cancelling out the effect of Trump’s poor coronavirus response. In particular, turnout has been alarmingly bad and Biden looks both increasingly likely to be nominated and increasingly senile.
Could you say more about this? What is your ranking in PredictIt / what is your track record? In particular, GJOpen, for example, doesn’t expect Trump to win
I’m in the top 25 oracles on the PI yearly leaderboard, which requires having 1m+ [EDIT:shares sold profitably] and an annual return of at least 300%-400%; not sure how much more to share/how best to measure track record. (One caveat on the leaderboard: many top traders delist themselves for various reasons so “top 25 leaderboard” != “top 25 PI traders”)
What does GJOpen say Trump’s odds are? FWIW I just wrote a comment here on why I think Trump is the clear underdog; my general impression is that top traders on PI tend to be long Biden overall as well