Trump will be blamed … probably fairly judging from his performance so far
This Twitter thread has a great explanation of what I meant. I don’t understand why prediction markets aren’t reacting to this. (Maybe this particular issue with testing is too hard for voters to understand, but the “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” quote… Doesn’t the attack ad write itself here?) Is this another failure of market efficiency, or is there some reasonable explanation?
The argument isn’t that saying something inane will hurt him, it’s that his administration will be percieved as poorly handling a major national crisis.
As an heavy predictit user, I’m not 100% sure what’s going on there either. I’ve already bet the max against Trump winning, and it could be a similar story for other top users. Another possibiilty is that the ongoing Dem primary is providing evidence that Trump will be re-elected, cancelling out the effect of Trump’s poor coronavirus response. In particular, turnout has been alarmingly bad and Biden looks both increasingly likely to be nominated and increasingly senile.
Could you say more about this? What is your ranking in PredictIt / what is your track record? In particular, GJOpen, for example, doesn’t expect Trump to win
I’m in the top 25 oracles on the PI yearly leaderboard, which requires having 1m+ [EDIT:shares sold profitably] and an annual return of at least 300%-400%; not sure how much more to share/how best to measure track record. (One caveat on the leaderboard: many top traders delist themselves for various reasons so “top 25 leaderboard” != “top 25 PI traders”)
What does GJOpen say Trump’s odds are? FWIW I just wrote a comment here on why I think Trump is the clear underdog; my general impression is that top traders on PI tend to be long Biden overall as well
This Twitter thread has a great explanation of what I meant. I don’t understand why prediction markets aren’t reacting to this. (Maybe this particular issue with testing is too hard for voters to understand, but the “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” quote… Doesn’t the attack ad write itself here?) Is this another failure of market efficiency, or is there some reasonable explanation?
Betting against Trump for saying something inane has proven unprofitable in the past.
The argument isn’t that saying something inane will hurt him, it’s that his administration will be percieved as poorly handling a major national crisis.
As an heavy predictit user, I’m not 100% sure what’s going on there either. I’ve already bet the max against Trump winning, and it could be a similar story for other top users. Another possibiilty is that the ongoing Dem primary is providing evidence that Trump will be re-elected, cancelling out the effect of Trump’s poor coronavirus response. In particular, turnout has been alarmingly bad and Biden looks both increasingly likely to be nominated and increasingly senile.
Could you say more about this? What is your ranking in PredictIt / what is your track record? In particular, GJOpen, for example, doesn’t expect Trump to win
I’m in the top 25 oracles on the PI yearly leaderboard, which requires having 1m+ [EDIT:shares sold profitably] and an annual return of at least 300%-400%; not sure how much more to share/how best to measure track record. (One caveat on the leaderboard: many top traders delist themselves for various reasons so “top 25 leaderboard” != “top 25 PI traders”)
What does GJOpen say Trump’s odds are? FWIW I just wrote a comment here on why I think Trump is the clear underdog; my general impression is that top traders on PI tend to be long Biden overall as well
Just speculating, but maybe the market expects Trump’s germophobia to cause him to take strong action in the future?
Because prediction markets work far worse than most people here give them credit for, especially for Nassim Taleb style events.