Notably eg the Diamond Princess number (36) isn’t critical cases, but “serious/critical” cases. Do you expect 70% fatality without critical equipment for the entire “serious/critical” category, or just the “critical” sub-category?
Further, curious about if there are explicable reasons underlying your 70% estimate, cause I am trying to estimate this myself too. Notably, I’ve seen numbers from China that 50% of critically ill patients die *with* medical care.
The “serious/critical” category on worldometer seems to mean “intensive care”, or “critical” as defined in the WHO report. Singapore’s 6% “serious/critical” means ICU admission. China’s 8.5% is close to the 6.1% on the WHO report—see below. Italy’s 10% is also intensive care, though their criteria for ICU admission could be different. It’s possible that the Diamond Princess number uses different criteria; do you know that they do? Anyway, the WHO said:
13.1% have severe disease [...] and 6.1% are critical. [...]
Severe cases are defined as tachypnoea (≧30 breaths/ min) or oxygen saturation ≤93% at
rest, or PaO2/FIO2 <300 mmHg. Critical cases are defined as respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, shock or other organ failure that requires intensive care. About a quarter of severe and critical cases [i.e. about the number of critical cases] require mechanical ventilation while the remaining 75% require only oxygen supplementation.
Most ICU patients need mechanical ventilation, close monitoring for administration of drugs like IV vasopressors (1:1 or 2:1 nurse:patient ratio), or other scarce resources. But the inference from that to 70% mortality in an organized, severely-overcrowded hospital is mostly medical intuition. I have significant uncertainty from lack of reference classes, and also don’t know how well hospitals will be organized.
Notably eg the Diamond Princess number (36) isn’t critical cases, but “serious/critical” cases. Do you expect 70% fatality without critical equipment for the entire “serious/critical” category, or just the “critical” sub-category?
Further, curious about if there are explicable reasons underlying your 70% estimate, cause I am trying to estimate this myself too. Notably, I’ve seen numbers from China that 50% of critically ill patients die *with* medical care.
The “serious/critical” category on worldometer seems to mean “intensive care”, or “critical” as defined in the WHO report. Singapore’s 6% “serious/critical” means ICU admission. China’s 8.5% is close to the 6.1% on the WHO report—see below. Italy’s 10% is also intensive care, though their criteria for ICU admission could be different. It’s possible that the Diamond Princess number uses different criteria; do you know that they do? Anyway, the WHO said:
Most ICU patients need mechanical ventilation, close monitoring for administration of drugs like IV vasopressors (1:1 or 2:1 nurse:patient ratio), or other scarce resources. But the inference from that to 70% mortality in an organized, severely-overcrowded hospital is mostly medical intuition. I have significant uncertainty from lack of reference classes, and also don’t know how well hospitals will be organized.