Using the outside view tells you something about your particular case. If you don’t know how long your project is going to take, and then someone tells you that such projects normally take ten months, then you’ve learned something about how long your project will take. It will take about ten months. Your quote is the kind of thing that people say because they think their project is special in some way. They’re trying to fight the outside view. But most of the time their project isn’t special, it will take just as long as everyone else.
The outside view informs judgements of particular cases.
Academics are familiar with
a related example: finishing our papers almost always
takes us longer than we expected. We all know this and
often say so. Why then do we continue to make the
same error? Here again, the outside view does not inform judgments of particular cases.
From
Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts
A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking by
Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo
But it does, no?
Sorry, but I don’t understand you.
Using the outside view tells you something about your particular case. If you don’t know how long your project is going to take, and then someone tells you that such projects normally take ten months, then you’ve learned something about how long your project will take. It will take about ten months. Your quote is the kind of thing that people say because they think their project is special in some way. They’re trying to fight the outside view. But most of the time their project isn’t special, it will take just as long as everyone else.
The outside view informs judgements of particular cases.
Alright, I will add a bit more context:
From Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking by Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo
Ah, that makes much more sense. Thanks.