Quality of life might drop significantly, due to inability to make all the stuff with present technology. But meanwhile, you don’t need a lot of resources to continue (or renew) R&D, laboratories won’t take too much stuff, only efficient services that come with economy of scale. It time, new technologies will appear
Consider the following chain of events: resource depletion (in particular of fossil fuels) causes countries to fight over resources, and populations to elect more aggressive leaders, leading to global nuclear war in 2050. Worldwide famine, Gigadeath, and a long new dark age follow.
Suppose this is followed by a massive famine which kills, say, 90% of the world’s population. This could easily cause every single advanced society in the world to collapse and revert to medieval style fiefdoms circa 2075. Such societies will not have access to fossil fuels, and therefore they won’t have modern agriculture. Population density therefore plummets to medieval levels, with people feeding themselves using subsistence agriculture. You then have a medieval population without fossil fuels and therefore it is harder to get the industrial revolution going again. Though, on balance, it seems more likely than not that technological civilization would rise again eventually.; and on this second take, perhaps humanity would be more careful, taking care to see where they went wrong the first time. The huge amount of data and artefacts stored around the world would surely allow archaeologists of the 23rd or 24th century to piece together what happened.
I suppose that my true objection to this scenario is that I would die, almost for certain.
In fact, such a scenario seems to me to be a very likely route to eventual human colonization of the stars.
Resources don’t become scarce overnight. It happens a little more slowly, the price of the scarce resource rises. People find ways to use it more efficiently; they find or invent substitutes.
Nor would unprecedented levels of resource scarcity be likely to lead to a war between major powers. Our political systems may be imperfect, but the logic of mutually assured destruction would be clear and compelling even to the general public.
Nor would unprecedented levels of resource scarcity be likely to lead to a war between major powers. Our political systems may be imperfect, but the logic of mutually assured destruction would be clear and compelling even to the general public.
This statement lacks evidence to support it; we have been close to war between nuclear powers in the past; I don’t think that either of us know whether resource shortage would lead to nuclear war. Severe resource shortage makes people desperate and makes them do silly things that aren’t really in their interest, just as shortage of sci-fi future progress is making ascilifeform desperate and advocate doing things that aren’t really in his/her interest.
I’m not saying it would, but I’m not saying it wouldn’t, and I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities.
Nuclear war might escalate in a way that those who started it didn’t predict.
I feel that in this argument, the onus is on you to provide evidence that most people are ignoring a serious risk.
I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities either, but I feel obliged to try.
I estimate the probability that scarcity of natural resources leads to a fifty percent decline in real GDP per capita in many wealthy countries in the next fifty years is less than one percent.
Conditional on my being wrong, I would be very confused about the world, but at this point would still assign less than a five percent risk of large scale nuclear war between major powers which are both aware there is a very high risk of mutual destruction.
I don’t think I’m looking at the world through rose colored glasses. I think the risk of small scale nuclear conflict, or threats such as the use of a bioengineered virus by terrorists, is much greater.
I estimate the probability that scarcity of natural resources leads to a fifty percent decline in real GDP per capita in many wealthy countries in the next fifty years is less than one percent.
Ok. What’s your expertise? Are you just generally well informed, or are you a business person or economist etc?
I haven’t earned a great deal of authority on these topics. I am a phd student in sociology who reads a lot of economics. As far as I can tell, economists don’t seem to think we should worry that scarcity of natural resources could lead to such major economic problems. I’d be interested to know what the market “thinks.” What investment strategy would profit in such a scenario?
he logic of mutually assured destruction would be clear and compelling even to the general public
When was the last time a government polled the general public before plunging the nation into war?
Now that I think about it, the American public, for instance, has already voted for petrowar: with its dollars, by purchasing SUVs and continuing to expand the familiar suburban madness which fuels the cult of the automobile.
Do you agree that you hold a small minority opinion?
Yes, of course.
Do you have any references where the arguments are spelled out in greater detail?
I was persuaded by the writings of one Dmitry Orlov. His work focuses on the impending collapse of the U.S.A. in particular, but I believe that much of what he wrote is applicable to the modern economy at large.
Consider the following chain of events: resource depletion (in particular of fossil fuels) causes countries to fight over resources, and populations to elect more aggressive leaders, leading to global nuclear war in 2050. Worldwide famine, Gigadeath, and a long new dark age follow.
Suppose this is followed by a massive famine which kills, say, 90% of the world’s population. This could easily cause every single advanced society in the world to collapse and revert to medieval style fiefdoms circa 2075. Such societies will not have access to fossil fuels, and therefore they won’t have modern agriculture. Population density therefore plummets to medieval levels, with people feeding themselves using subsistence agriculture. You then have a medieval population without fossil fuels and therefore it is harder to get the industrial revolution going again. Though, on balance, it seems more likely than not that technological civilization would rise again eventually.; and on this second take, perhaps humanity would be more careful, taking care to see where they went wrong the first time. The huge amount of data and artefacts stored around the world would surely allow archaeologists of the 23rd or 24th century to piece together what happened.
I suppose that my true objection to this scenario is that I would die, almost for certain.
In fact, such a scenario seems to me to be a very likely route to eventual human colonization of the stars.
Resources don’t become scarce overnight. It happens a little more slowly, the price of the scarce resource rises. People find ways to use it more efficiently; they find or invent substitutes.
Nor would unprecedented levels of resource scarcity be likely to lead to a war between major powers. Our political systems may be imperfect, but the logic of mutually assured destruction would be clear and compelling even to the general public.
This statement lacks evidence to support it; we have been close to war between nuclear powers in the past; I don’t think that either of us know whether resource shortage would lead to nuclear war. Severe resource shortage makes people desperate and makes them do silly things that aren’t really in their interest, just as shortage of sci-fi future progress is making ascilifeform desperate and advocate doing things that aren’t really in his/her interest.
I’m not saying it would, but I’m not saying it wouldn’t, and I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities.
Nuclear war might escalate in a way that those who started it didn’t predict.
I feel that in this argument, the onus is on you to provide evidence that most people are ignoring a serious risk.
I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities either, but I feel obliged to try.
I estimate the probability that scarcity of natural resources leads to a fifty percent decline in real GDP per capita in many wealthy countries in the next fifty years is less than one percent.
Conditional on my being wrong, I would be very confused about the world, but at this point would still assign less than a five percent risk of large scale nuclear war between major powers which are both aware there is a very high risk of mutual destruction.
I don’t think I’m looking at the world through rose colored glasses. I think the risk of small scale nuclear conflict, or threats such as the use of a bioengineered virus by terrorists, is much greater.
Ok. What’s your expertise? Are you just generally well informed, or are you a business person or economist etc?
I haven’t earned a great deal of authority on these topics. I am a phd student in sociology who reads a lot of economics. As far as I can tell, economists don’t seem to think we should worry that scarcity of natural resources could lead to such major economic problems. I’d be interested to know what the market “thinks.” What investment strategy would profit in such a scenario?
I don’t know.
When was the last time a government polled the general public before plunging the nation into war?
Now that I think about it, the American public, for instance, has already voted for petrowar: with its dollars, by purchasing SUVs and continuing to expand the familiar suburban madness which fuels the cult of the automobile.
I encourage you to write more serious comments… or find some other place to rant.
Please attack my arguments. I truly mean what I say. I can see how you might have read me as a troll, though.
In the next century I think it is unlikely
resource scarcity will dramatically lower economic growth across the world, or
competition for resources will lead to devastating war between major powers, e.g. U.S. and China, because each country has too much to lose.
I believe my opinions are shared by most economists, political scientists, politicians. Do you agree that you hold a small minority opinion?
Do you have any references where the arguments are spelled out in greater detail?
Yes, of course.
I was persuaded by the writings of one Dmitry Orlov. His work focuses on the impending collapse of the U.S.A. in particular, but I believe that much of what he wrote is applicable to the modern economy at large.
Thankfully, it’s not up to you.
For the record, what about that comment struck you as unserious?