Nor would unprecedented levels of resource scarcity be likely to lead to a war between major powers. Our political systems may be imperfect, but the logic of mutually assured destruction would be clear and compelling even to the general public.
This statement lacks evidence to support it; we have been close to war between nuclear powers in the past; I don’t think that either of us know whether resource shortage would lead to nuclear war. Severe resource shortage makes people desperate and makes them do silly things that aren’t really in their interest, just as shortage of sci-fi future progress is making ascilifeform desperate and advocate doing things that aren’t really in his/her interest.
I’m not saying it would, but I’m not saying it wouldn’t, and I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities.
Nuclear war might escalate in a way that those who started it didn’t predict.
I feel that in this argument, the onus is on you to provide evidence that most people are ignoring a serious risk.
I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities either, but I feel obliged to try.
I estimate the probability that scarcity of natural resources leads to a fifty percent decline in real GDP per capita in many wealthy countries in the next fifty years is less than one percent.
Conditional on my being wrong, I would be very confused about the world, but at this point would still assign less than a five percent risk of large scale nuclear war between major powers which are both aware there is a very high risk of mutual destruction.
I don’t think I’m looking at the world through rose colored glasses. I think the risk of small scale nuclear conflict, or threats such as the use of a bioengineered virus by terrorists, is much greater.
I estimate the probability that scarcity of natural resources leads to a fifty percent decline in real GDP per capita in many wealthy countries in the next fifty years is less than one percent.
Ok. What’s your expertise? Are you just generally well informed, or are you a business person or economist etc?
I haven’t earned a great deal of authority on these topics. I am a phd student in sociology who reads a lot of economics. As far as I can tell, economists don’t seem to think we should worry that scarcity of natural resources could lead to such major economic problems. I’d be interested to know what the market “thinks.” What investment strategy would profit in such a scenario?
This statement lacks evidence to support it; we have been close to war between nuclear powers in the past; I don’t think that either of us know whether resource shortage would lead to nuclear war. Severe resource shortage makes people desperate and makes them do silly things that aren’t really in their interest, just as shortage of sci-fi future progress is making ascilifeform desperate and advocate doing things that aren’t really in his/her interest.
I’m not saying it would, but I’m not saying it wouldn’t, and I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities.
Nuclear war might escalate in a way that those who started it didn’t predict.
I feel that in this argument, the onus is on you to provide evidence that most people are ignoring a serious risk.
I don’t have a good way of assigning probabilities either, but I feel obliged to try.
I estimate the probability that scarcity of natural resources leads to a fifty percent decline in real GDP per capita in many wealthy countries in the next fifty years is less than one percent.
Conditional on my being wrong, I would be very confused about the world, but at this point would still assign less than a five percent risk of large scale nuclear war between major powers which are both aware there is a very high risk of mutual destruction.
I don’t think I’m looking at the world through rose colored glasses. I think the risk of small scale nuclear conflict, or threats such as the use of a bioengineered virus by terrorists, is much greater.
Ok. What’s your expertise? Are you just generally well informed, or are you a business person or economist etc?
I haven’t earned a great deal of authority on these topics. I am a phd student in sociology who reads a lot of economics. As far as I can tell, economists don’t seem to think we should worry that scarcity of natural resources could lead to such major economic problems. I’d be interested to know what the market “thinks.” What investment strategy would profit in such a scenario?
I don’t know.