There is no possible way that 10% of GitHub’s entire user base (mostly free) will pay $15/mo, which is more than GitHub’s standard plan (team, $4/mo), and only slightly less than their most expensive plan (enterprise, $21/mo).
A few tens of thousands of early adopters will probably do so, but tiered pricing will happen long before it becomes popular. I predict there will be some use cases that justify $15/month, but the vast majority will be paid less, and charged by the resulting lines of code, the size/quantity of the prompts used, and/or the time consumed.
What are the main benefits people seek when they buy the more expensive plans? I don’t understand the stuff on the page, but it looks like it’s storage space + more features that make it easier to work in teams. I’m not sure how to compare that stuff to Codex but intuitively I feel like Codex is more valuable, because more people could benefit from Codex than are working in teams. I don’t know what I’m talking about though, which is why I’m asking. :)
If the charge is per token… let me think… suppose Codex gets called up to write something 10 times per programmer work-hour (it would come in clumps probably, not evenly spaced. Sometimes it would not give you what you want and you’d retry a couple times). That’s maybe 1000 tokens per work-hour, which (if it were GPT-3) would cost $0.06, so that’s like $0.50 a day, which comes out to $15.00 a month… I swear I didn’t plan that calculation to come out that way! (But of course it’s just a fermi estimate, could be off by orders of magnitude. Also, the current version of Codex is the 12B param version which probably costs an OOM less than GPT-3)
I’ve seen demos, but have not gotten direct access myself yet (and I’ll gladly pay that to evaluate, and long-term if I end up actually integrating it into my workflow). Agreed that Codex is valuable on different dimensions than GitHub’s current pricing model—for many, it will in fact be more valuable. I mostly pointed out the discrepancy to counter the argument that number of current GitHub users predicts anything about who will pay what amount for Codex.
I think that many many coders have sporadic use, and $0.50/day for days they use it ends up being a lot less than $15/month. My prediction is really that it will provide such widely varying value to different consumers that it’ll be near-impossible to charge the same amount to all of them.
There is no possible way that 10% of GitHub’s entire user base (mostly free) will pay $15/mo, which is more than GitHub’s standard plan (team, $4/mo), and only slightly less than their most expensive plan (enterprise, $21/mo).
A few tens of thousands of early adopters will probably do so, but tiered pricing will happen long before it becomes popular. I predict there will be some use cases that justify $15/month, but the vast majority will be paid less, and charged by the resulting lines of code, the size/quantity of the prompts used, and/or the time consumed.
Thanks! Have you used Codex?
What are the main benefits people seek when they buy the more expensive plans? I don’t understand the stuff on the page, but it looks like it’s storage space + more features that make it easier to work in teams. I’m not sure how to compare that stuff to Codex but intuitively I feel like Codex is more valuable, because more people could benefit from Codex than are working in teams. I don’t know what I’m talking about though, which is why I’m asking. :)
If the charge is per token… let me think… suppose Codex gets called up to write something 10 times per programmer work-hour (it would come in clumps probably, not evenly spaced. Sometimes it would not give you what you want and you’d retry a couple times). That’s maybe 1000 tokens per work-hour, which (if it were GPT-3) would cost $0.06, so that’s like $0.50 a day, which comes out to $15.00 a month… I swear I didn’t plan that calculation to come out that way! (But of course it’s just a fermi estimate, could be off by orders of magnitude. Also, the current version of Codex is the 12B param version which probably costs an OOM less than GPT-3)
I’ve seen demos, but have not gotten direct access myself yet (and I’ll gladly pay that to evaluate, and long-term if I end up actually integrating it into my workflow). Agreed that Codex is valuable on different dimensions than GitHub’s current pricing model—for many, it will in fact be more valuable. I mostly pointed out the discrepancy to counter the argument that number of current GitHub users predicts anything about who will pay what amount for Codex.
I think that many many coders have sporadic use, and $0.50/day for days they use it ends up being a lot less than $15/month. My prediction is really that it will provide such widely varying value to different consumers that it’ll be near-impossible to charge the same amount to all of them.