The one that seems most likely to me is Pinker preemptively canceling himself to inoculate against future attempts. I don’t think it’s outlandish. And I think it is quite possible that Pinker has some Machiavelli in him.
I assume you are asking me to give a probability....maybe 40%. The last few months have been so weird that it’s harder for me to assess this than it normally would be—I have a feeling I’m not tracking the full range of plausible motives now in operation. I also don’t follow Pinker very closely so I don’t have a great sense of his behavior, tactics, and values. But the information given in this post seems to me strong evidence that this isn’t what it appears to be, and Pinker seems by far the person with the most to gain from it (and the most to lose from not trying to preempt it.) It would almost certainly involve cooperation by others who want to see if the technique works and think Pinker is a good trial balloon (his steady, optimistic personality is ideal for this, and he has prominent detractors rising to his defense, which gives momentum), but it wouldn’t work without his active participation.
Thanks for answering my question. I’d personally assign a ~5% chance [EDIT: on reflection, perhaps closer to 10%] to that hypothesis. If you can think of a way to operationalize our disagreement, I’d be interested in arranging a bet.
By “operationalize our disagreement,” do you mean agreeing on what wou. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to “game” it. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probalby never will—it’s not like
Literally as I’m writing this, I just saw that Pinker did an interview. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to observe it and “game” it, and he’s not afraid. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probably never will if he was behind it—it’s not clever enough to brag about. But it would have given him reason to step in to the fray and highlight certain things, which he obviously wants to do. He says that “It’s important that there be a public voice, a focal point to break what is sometimes called a spiral of silence.”
ETA: I should clarify that this is technically a different position—I was lumping them together under “he is in on it,” but I no longer think it is mostly about inoculation. More about the other possibility I suggested: “Or perhaps it was a plan by him and others to send the debate in a specific direction that they could more easily address.”
Solid reasoning. 40% seems just a little high to me but I absolutely agree that, conditional on this being a false flag, Pinker has the most to gain from it.
Matt Taibbi has written an article that makes me more confident it was a false flag...at least 55%. He doesn’t argue this, but he also noted that the accusations were weirdly chosen and presented. It’s paywalled, but a few quotes:
“When I reached out to the group’s listed email, they declined comment” (citing fear of threats, in a short and vague response.)
“The campaign seems to have failed, as it doesn’t appear the LSA is planning on taking action.” (Why did it die out without any further info?)
“Pinker didn’t see this exact campaign coming, as ‘I don’t consider myself a political provocateur, and I’m a mainstream liberal Democrat.’ However, he says, ‘over the years I’ve realized I have some vulnerabilities.’ …By way of explaining,he referenced [the SSC controversy]...”
He speaks more calmly and intelligently about this issue than almost any public figure I’ve seen. I’m going to read more of his work.
What’s your credence in this hypothesis?
I assume you are asking me to give a probability....maybe 40%. The last few months have been so weird that it’s harder for me to assess this than it normally would be—I have a feeling I’m not tracking the full range of plausible motives now in operation. I also don’t follow Pinker very closely so I don’t have a great sense of his behavior, tactics, and values. But the information given in this post seems to me strong evidence that this isn’t what it appears to be, and Pinker seems by far the person with the most to gain from it (and the most to lose from not trying to preempt it.) It would almost certainly involve cooperation by others who want to see if the technique works and think Pinker is a good trial balloon (his steady, optimistic personality is ideal for this, and he has prominent detractors rising to his defense, which gives momentum), but it wouldn’t work without his active participation.
Thanks for answering my question. I’d personally assign a ~5% chance [EDIT: on reflection, perhaps closer to 10%] to that hypothesis. If you can think of a way to operationalize our disagreement, I’d be interested in arranging a bet.
By “operationalize our disagreement,” do you mean agreeing on what wou. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to “game” it. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probalby never will—it’s not like
Literally as I’m writing this, I just saw that Pinker did an interview. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to observe it and “game” it, and he’s not afraid. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probably never will if he was behind it—it’s not clever enough to brag about. But it would have given him reason to step in to the fray and highlight certain things, which he obviously wants to do. He says that “It’s important that there be a public voice, a focal point to break what is sometimes called a spiral of silence.”
ETA: I should clarify that this is technically a different position—I was lumping them together under “he is in on it,” but I no longer think it is mostly about inoculation. More about the other possibility I suggested: “Or perhaps it was a plan by him and others to send the debate in a specific direction that they could more easily address.”
Solid reasoning. 40% seems just a little high to me but I absolutely agree that, conditional on this being a false flag, Pinker has the most to gain from it.
Matt Taibbi has written an article that makes me more confident it was a false flag...at least 55%. He doesn’t argue this, but he also noted that the accusations were weirdly chosen and presented. It’s paywalled, but a few quotes:
“When I reached out to the group’s listed email, they declined comment” (citing fear of threats, in a short and vague response.)
“The campaign seems to have failed, as it doesn’t appear the LSA is planning on taking action.” (Why did it die out without any further info?)
“Pinker didn’t see this exact campaign coming, as ‘I don’t consider myself a political provocateur, and I’m a mainstream liberal Democrat.’ However, he says, ‘over the years I’ve realized I have some vulnerabilities.’ … By way of explaining, he referenced [the SSC controversy]...”
He speaks more calmly and intelligently about this issue than almost any public figure I’ve seen. I’m going to read more of his work.
Wow, very interesting finds. That does make it seem even more like a false flag. Could you share the link to the article (even though it’s paywalled)?
Also, would you mind if I added some of your points to the main post, for posterity?
Here—there’s an excerpt here. You can include them if you’d like.