These are very sharp observations, and I think you’re on to something. Don’t know what the real story is, but your suggestions are plausible. The one that seems most likely to me is Pinker preemptively canceling himself to inoculate against future attempts. I don’t think it’s outlandish. And I think it is quite possible that Pinker has some Machiavelli in him.
Or perhaps it was a plan by him and others to send the debate in a specific direction that they could more easily address. It’s possible that he just caught the eye of some LSA member who wanted to take a stand and didn’t do much research, but your point about the footnote is telling. I didn’t follow the Pinker controversy closely, but I did notice it seemed oddly tame. People are way too wedded to taking things at face value—yes, most of the time, there’s no grand conspiracy, but strategy is a thing and you have to watch for moves or glaring omissions.
In addition to the general craziness, there’s definitely something going on right now that just seems off—incidents that are too neatly executed yet simultaneously too incompetent or bizarre to be natural. I think people are hijacking the current controversies—the issues are mostly real, but there are contrived ones mixed in, I suspect, that go beyond simply riding the wave and seem designed for maximum division and ridiculousness. And it’s happening in mainstream media outlets in a coordinated manner. At first I thought some people or groups were sowing confusion and the media was falling for it, whether by domestic trolls or foreign information warriors, but now it seems more like malicious testing, to see what works and how far they they can go without getting pushback. It could be a show of power demonstrating that absurdity can be enforced, but that kind of behavior is a weird thing to do at such a large scale for such a diverse audience. Powerful status quo figures use spin and selective smear campaigns, but rarely benefit from constant and off-putting provocation. It seems more designed to disorient everyone and make exploiting it in any real direction impossible. I don’t think this would be related to conservatives, but to a person or group who doesn’t have any interest in the country’s welfare or traditional political power. I know this sounds conspiratorial, but something odd is going on, and I can’t quite figure out who benefits, unless it’s pure distraction by panicked and deranged elites who can’t deal with their disrupted future, as Matt Taibbi has argued. I’ve never seen anything like it.
The one that seems most likely to me is Pinker preemptively canceling himself to inoculate against future attempts. I don’t think it’s outlandish. And I think it is quite possible that Pinker has some Machiavelli in him.
I assume you are asking me to give a probability....maybe 40%. The last few months have been so weird that it’s harder for me to assess this than it normally would be—I have a feeling I’m not tracking the full range of plausible motives now in operation. I also don’t follow Pinker very closely so I don’t have a great sense of his behavior, tactics, and values. But the information given in this post seems to me strong evidence that this isn’t what it appears to be, and Pinker seems by far the person with the most to gain from it (and the most to lose from not trying to preempt it.) It would almost certainly involve cooperation by others who want to see if the technique works and think Pinker is a good trial balloon (his steady, optimistic personality is ideal for this, and he has prominent detractors rising to his defense, which gives momentum), but it wouldn’t work without his active participation.
Thanks for answering my question. I’d personally assign a ~5% chance [EDIT: on reflection, perhaps closer to 10%] to that hypothesis. If you can think of a way to operationalize our disagreement, I’d be interested in arranging a bet.
By “operationalize our disagreement,” do you mean agreeing on what wou. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to “game” it. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probalby never will—it’s not like
Literally as I’m writing this, I just saw that Pinker did an interview. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to observe it and “game” it, and he’s not afraid. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probably never will if he was behind it—it’s not clever enough to brag about. But it would have given him reason to step in to the fray and highlight certain things, which he obviously wants to do. He says that “It’s important that there be a public voice, a focal point to break what is sometimes called a spiral of silence.”
ETA: I should clarify that this is technically a different position—I was lumping them together under “he is in on it,” but I no longer think it is mostly about inoculation. More about the other possibility I suggested: “Or perhaps it was a plan by him and others to send the debate in a specific direction that they could more easily address.”
Solid reasoning. 40% seems just a little high to me but I absolutely agree that, conditional on this being a false flag, Pinker has the most to gain from it.
Matt Taibbi has written an article that makes me more confident it was a false flag...at least 55%. He doesn’t argue this, but he also noted that the accusations were weirdly chosen and presented. It’s paywalled, but a few quotes:
“When I reached out to the group’s listed email, they declined comment” (citing fear of threats, in a short and vague response.)
“The campaign seems to have failed, as it doesn’t appear the LSA is planning on taking action.” (Why did it die out without any further info?)
“Pinker didn’t see this exact campaign coming, as ‘I don’t consider myself a political provocateur, and I’m a mainstream liberal Democrat.’ However, he says, ‘over the years I’ve realized I have some vulnerabilities.’ …By way of explaining,he referenced [the SSC controversy]...”
He speaks more calmly and intelligently about this issue than almost any public figure I’ve seen. I’m going to read more of his work.
There are power strugglesright now in most newsrooms between younger journalists who want the paper to follow intersectional norms and older journalists with more traditional ideals.
Neatly executed actions can be competent and make sense for inter-organizational politics but seem incompetent and bizarre to the outside world.
These are very sharp observations, and I think you’re on to something. Don’t know what the real story is, but your suggestions are plausible. The one that seems most likely to me is Pinker preemptively canceling himself to inoculate against future attempts. I don’t think it’s outlandish. And I think it is quite possible that Pinker has some Machiavelli in him.
Or perhaps it was a plan by him and others to send the debate in a specific direction that they could more easily address. It’s possible that he just caught the eye of some LSA member who wanted to take a stand and didn’t do much research, but your point about the footnote is telling. I didn’t follow the Pinker controversy closely, but I did notice it seemed oddly tame. People are way too wedded to taking things at face value—yes, most of the time, there’s no grand conspiracy, but strategy is a thing and you have to watch for moves or glaring omissions.
In addition to the general craziness, there’s definitely something going on right now that just seems off—incidents that are too neatly executed yet simultaneously too incompetent or bizarre to be natural. I think people are hijacking the current controversies—the issues are mostly real, but there are contrived ones mixed in, I suspect, that go beyond simply riding the wave and seem designed for maximum division and ridiculousness. And it’s happening in mainstream media outlets in a coordinated manner. At first I thought some people or groups were sowing confusion and the media was falling for it, whether by domestic trolls or foreign information warriors, but now it seems more like malicious testing, to see what works and how far they they can go without getting pushback. It could be a show of power demonstrating that absurdity can be enforced, but that kind of behavior is a weird thing to do at such a large scale for such a diverse audience. Powerful status quo figures use spin and selective smear campaigns, but rarely benefit from constant and off-putting provocation. It seems more designed to disorient everyone and make exploiting it in any real direction impossible. I don’t think this would be related to conservatives, but to a person or group who doesn’t have any interest in the country’s welfare or traditional political power. I know this sounds conspiratorial, but something odd is going on, and I can’t quite figure out who benefits, unless it’s pure distraction by panicked and deranged elites who can’t deal with their disrupted future, as Matt Taibbi has argued. I’ve never seen anything like it.
What’s your credence in this hypothesis?
I assume you are asking me to give a probability....maybe 40%. The last few months have been so weird that it’s harder for me to assess this than it normally would be—I have a feeling I’m not tracking the full range of plausible motives now in operation. I also don’t follow Pinker very closely so I don’t have a great sense of his behavior, tactics, and values. But the information given in this post seems to me strong evidence that this isn’t what it appears to be, and Pinker seems by far the person with the most to gain from it (and the most to lose from not trying to preempt it.) It would almost certainly involve cooperation by others who want to see if the technique works and think Pinker is a good trial balloon (his steady, optimistic personality is ideal for this, and he has prominent detractors rising to his defense, which gives momentum), but it wouldn’t work without his active participation.
Thanks for answering my question. I’d personally assign a ~5% chance [EDIT: on reflection, perhaps closer to 10%] to that hypothesis. If you can think of a way to operationalize our disagreement, I’d be interested in arranging a bet.
By “operationalize our disagreement,” do you mean agreeing on what wou. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to “game” it. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probalby never will—it’s not like
Literally as I’m writing this, I just saw that Pinker did an interview. I’m now more confident in my position. He’s evidently volunteered to be a champion of the cause and take the heat, and the interview suggests he’s thought a lot about the issue and how it works. So he would know how to observe it and “game” it, and he’s not afraid. But it’s evident he’s not taking responsibility for the letter and probably never will if he was behind it—it’s not clever enough to brag about. But it would have given him reason to step in to the fray and highlight certain things, which he obviously wants to do. He says that “It’s important that there be a public voice, a focal point to break what is sometimes called a spiral of silence.”
ETA: I should clarify that this is technically a different position—I was lumping them together under “he is in on it,” but I no longer think it is mostly about inoculation. More about the other possibility I suggested: “Or perhaps it was a plan by him and others to send the debate in a specific direction that they could more easily address.”
Solid reasoning. 40% seems just a little high to me but I absolutely agree that, conditional on this being a false flag, Pinker has the most to gain from it.
Matt Taibbi has written an article that makes me more confident it was a false flag...at least 55%. He doesn’t argue this, but he also noted that the accusations were weirdly chosen and presented. It’s paywalled, but a few quotes:
“When I reached out to the group’s listed email, they declined comment” (citing fear of threats, in a short and vague response.)
“The campaign seems to have failed, as it doesn’t appear the LSA is planning on taking action.” (Why did it die out without any further info?)
“Pinker didn’t see this exact campaign coming, as ‘I don’t consider myself a political provocateur, and I’m a mainstream liberal Democrat.’ However, he says, ‘over the years I’ve realized I have some vulnerabilities.’ … By way of explaining, he referenced [the SSC controversy]...”
He speaks more calmly and intelligently about this issue than almost any public figure I’ve seen. I’m going to read more of his work.
Wow, very interesting finds. That does make it seem even more like a false flag. Could you share the link to the article (even though it’s paywalled)?
Also, would you mind if I added some of your points to the main post, for posterity?
Here—there’s an excerpt here. You can include them if you’d like.
There are power struggles right now in most newsrooms between younger journalists who want the paper to follow intersectional norms and older journalists with more traditional ideals.
Neatly executed actions can be competent and make sense for inter-organizational politics but seem incompetent and bizarre to the outside world.
This definitely explains a lot of it, but I feel like there’s something missing from the analysis.
Thank you! Yes, I wouldn’t say that I have any particular view on what is happening, just that something seems off.