I live in South Korea. Apart from threat of nuclear war, which seems low so far, the primary impact of Ukraine war seems to be potential default of Russia and its possibility to lead to financial crisis.
“Will Russia default?” is a rare question with a liquid real money prediction market, called CDS(credit default swap). Bloomberg claims the market implies 80% chance of default. Sadly I don’t know how to do that computation myself, so please tell us if you can explain it step by step.
Russia defaulted in 1998. As I understand, it led to collapse of LTCM and almost led to financial crisis, akin to bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and Global Financial Crisis. In 1998, crisis was averted by bailout organized by Federal Reserve, but we may not be as lucky this time, as we weren’t in 2008. I hope financial industry advanced in terms of risk management since 1998 and 2008, but in fact don’t know whether it did. If you know, please tell us.
[Question] Will Russia default, and if so, will it lead to financial crisis?
I live in South Korea. Apart from threat of nuclear war, which seems low so far, the primary impact of Ukraine war seems to be potential default of Russia and its possibility to lead to financial crisis.
“Will Russia default?” is a rare question with a liquid real money prediction market, called CDS(credit default swap). Bloomberg claims the market implies 80% chance of default. Sadly I don’t know how to do that computation myself, so please tell us if you can explain it step by step.
Russia defaulted in 1998. As I understand, it led to collapse of LTCM and almost led to financial crisis, akin to bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and Global Financial Crisis. In 1998, crisis was averted by bailout organized by Federal Reserve, but we may not be as lucky this time, as we weren’t in 2008. I hope financial industry advanced in terms of risk management since 1998 and 2008, but in fact don’t know whether it did. If you know, please tell us.