Similar experiments was done by R.Gott. He had chosen a process of unknown duration which he had observed in a random moment of time, that is, the duration of the Broadway shows. Based on the past duration of a show, he was able to predict future duration.
In your case, let’s assume that there is a population in some planet X, which exists for 100 years and doesn’t know it. Each year they use Gott’s DA to predict their future existence with 90 per cent confidence (equal to the order of magnitude). In that case:
First year predicts extinction in 10 years (false, but already “decades” order of magnitude, which is true)
5 years − 50 years (false)
10 − 100 (true)
50 −500 (true)
90- 900. (true, but too vague)
In other words, Gott’s DA is gives correct predictions about the future age for 90 per cent of inhabitants of the planet X, which is a good result.
However, for the first few days of the planet X existence, the DA prediction will be very wrong, around 10 days (I have a suspicion that it will be so wrong that it will compensate the predictive power of DA if we sum up all predictions multiplied on their expected utility or something like this). But it is very unlikely to appear in such unlikely position.
Similar experiments was done by R.Gott. He had chosen a process of unknown duration which he had observed in a random moment of time, that is, the duration of the Broadway shows. Based on the past duration of a show, he was able to predict future duration.
In your case, let’s assume that there is a population in some planet X, which exists for 100 years and doesn’t know it. Each year they use Gott’s DA to predict their future existence with 90 per cent confidence (equal to the order of magnitude). In that case:
First year predicts extinction in 10 years (false, but already “decades” order of magnitude, which is true)
5 years − 50 years (false)
10 − 100 (true)
50 −500 (true)
90- 900. (true, but too vague)
In other words, Gott’s DA is gives correct predictions about the future age for 90 per cent of inhabitants of the planet X, which is a good result.
However, for the first few days of the planet X existence, the DA prediction will be very wrong, around 10 days (I have a suspicion that it will be so wrong that it will compensate the predictive power of DA if we sum up all predictions multiplied on their expected utility or something like this). But it is very unlikely to appear in such unlikely position.