despite expert prediction systems (using linear regression!) performing at the level of expert humans for ~50 years.
Is this because using them is incredibly slow or something else?
A webcam can measure pulse rate just by looking, and so I suspect it’ll be about as good at detecting deflection and lying as the average doctor. (I don’t remember seeing doctors as being particularly good at lie-detection, but it’s been a while since I’ve read any of the lie-detection literature.)
Lies make no sense medically, or make too much sense. Once I’ve spotted a few lies, many of them fit a stereotypical pattern many patients use even if there aren’t any other clues. I don’t need to rely on body language much.
People also misremember things, or have a helpful relative misremember things for them, or home care providers feeding their clueless preliminary diagnoses for these people. People who don’t remember fill in the gap with something they think is plausible. Some people are also psychotic or don’t even remember what year it is or why they came in the first place. Some people treat every little ache like it’s the end of the world and some don’t seem to care if their leg’s missing.
I think even an independent AI could make up for many of its faults simply by being more accurate at interpreting the records and current test results.
I hope that when an AI can do my job I don’t need a job anymore :)
Is this because using them is incredibly slow or something else?
My understanding is that the ~4 measurements the system would use as inputs were typically measured by the doctor, and by the time the doctor had collected the data they had simultaneously come up with their own diagnosis. Typing the observations into the computer to get the same level of accuracy (or a few extra percentage points) rarely seemed worth it, and turning the doctor from a diagnostician to a tech was, to put it lightly, not popular with doctors. :P
There are other arguments which would take a long time to go into. One is “but what about X?”, where the linear regression wouldn’t take into account some other variable that the human could take into account, and so the human would want an override option. But, as one might expect, the only way for the regression to outperform the human is for the regression to be right more often than not when the two of them disagree, and humans are unfortunately not very good at determining whether or not the case in front of them is a special case where an override will increase accuracy or a normal case where an override will decrease accuracy. Here’s probably the best place to start if interested in reading more.
Is this because using them is incredibly slow or something else?
Lies make no sense medically, or make too much sense. Once I’ve spotted a few lies, many of them fit a stereotypical pattern many patients use even if there aren’t any other clues. I don’t need to rely on body language much.
People also misremember things, or have a helpful relative misremember things for them, or home care providers feeding their clueless preliminary diagnoses for these people. People who don’t remember fill in the gap with something they think is plausible. Some people are also psychotic or don’t even remember what year it is or why they came in the first place. Some people treat every little ache like it’s the end of the world and some don’t seem to care if their leg’s missing.
I think even an independent AI could make up for many of its faults simply by being more accurate at interpreting the records and current test results.
I hope that when an AI can do my job I don’t need a job anymore :)
My understanding is that the ~4 measurements the system would use as inputs were typically measured by the doctor, and by the time the doctor had collected the data they had simultaneously come up with their own diagnosis. Typing the observations into the computer to get the same level of accuracy (or a few extra percentage points) rarely seemed worth it, and turning the doctor from a diagnostician to a tech was, to put it lightly, not popular with doctors. :P
There are other arguments which would take a long time to go into. One is “but what about X?”, where the linear regression wouldn’t take into account some other variable that the human could take into account, and so the human would want an override option. But, as one might expect, the only way for the regression to outperform the human is for the regression to be right more often than not when the two of them disagree, and humans are unfortunately not very good at determining whether or not the case in front of them is a special case where an override will increase accuracy or a normal case where an override will decrease accuracy. Here’s probably the best place to start if interested in reading more.