I agree, cryonics is failing to “click” with me for largely the same reason—that the estimate of me benefitting from cryonics is not 95%, but more like 5%.
Think of it as insurance, in the literal sense. When you buy e.g. insurance for your house against fire, there is only something like 0.2% chance or less that you’ll benefit from the fact that you’ve bought insurance (you only benefit if fire happens), and 99.8% chance that you’ll only lose money by paying for insurance, which is by the way not a trivial sum.
The analogy is not intuitively very salient on first sight, because “fire” may connote with “death”, while actually the analogy likens “fire” to successful revival, and death is just a fact of the scenery. A cryonics contract ensures you against the risk of successful revival. If it turns out that you can be successfully revived, then you get the premium of open-ended future.
It also “insures” against the risk of a horrific revival. Plus, in order for the insurance to work, the premium would be very high right now for me to pay:
Think of it as insurance, in the literal sense. When you buy e.g. insurance for your house against fire, there is only something like 0.2% chance or less that you’ll benefit from the fact that you’ve bought insurance (you only benefit if fire happens), and 99.8% chance that you’ll only lose money by paying for insurance, which is by the way not a trivial sum.
The analogy is not intuitively very salient on first sight, because “fire” may connote with “death”, while actually the analogy likens “fire” to successful revival, and death is just a fact of the scenery. A cryonics contract ensures you against the risk of successful revival. If it turns out that you can be successfully revived, then you get the premium of open-ended future.
It also “insures” against the risk of a horrific revival. Plus, in order for the insurance to work, the premium would be very high right now for me to pay:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/1mh/that_magical_click/1iam