Some notes about modelling DSA, inspired by Review of Soft Takeoff Can Still Lead to DSA. Relevant chunk of my comment on the post:
My reasoning for why it matters:
DSA relies on one or more capability advantages.
Each capability depends on one or more domains of expertise to develop.
A certain amount of domain expertise is required to develop the capability.
Ideas become more difficult in terms of resources and time to discover as they approach the capability threshold.
Now this doesn’t actually change the underlying intuition of a time advantage very much; mostly I just expect that the ’10x faster innovation’ component of the example will be deeply discontinuous. This leads naturally to thinking about things like a broad DSA, which might consist of a systematic advantage across capabilities, versus a tall DSA, which would be more like an overwhelming advantage in a single, high import capability.
I feel like identifying the layers at work here would be highly valuable. I could also easily see specifying a layer below domain as fields, which will allow the lowest level to map to how we usually track ideas (by paper and research group) which leaves domain the more applied engineering/technician area of development, and then finally capability describes the thing-where-the-advantage-is.
After teasing out several example capabilities and building their lower levels, it starts to looks sort of like a multidimensional version of a tech tree.
I am also interested in accounting for things like research debt. Interpretive labor is really important for the lateral movement of ideas; leaning on Daniel’s post again for example, I propose that ideas pulled from the public domain would be less effectively used than those developed in-house. This could be treated as each idea having only fractional value, or as a time delay as the interpretive labor has to be duplicated in-house before the idea yields dividends.
Some notes about modelling DSA, inspired by Review of Soft Takeoff Can Still Lead to DSA. Relevant chunk of my comment on the post:
I feel like identifying the layers at work here would be highly valuable. I could also easily see specifying a layer below domain as fields, which will allow the lowest level to map to how we usually track ideas (by paper and research group) which leaves domain the more applied engineering/technician area of development, and then finally capability describes the thing-where-the-advantage-is.
After teasing out several example capabilities and building their lower levels, it starts to looks sort of like a multidimensional version of a tech tree.
I am also interested in accounting for things like research debt. Interpretive labor is really important for the lateral movement of ideas; leaning on Daniel’s post again for example, I propose that ideas pulled from the public domain would be less effectively used than those developed in-house. This could be treated as each idea having only fractional value, or as a time delay as the interpretive labor has to be duplicated in-house before the idea yields dividends.