HPMOR is making me rethink human nature—because of how people react to it. This is a story full of cunning disguises, and readers seem reluctant to see past those disguises. RL rkcerffrq chmmyrzrag ng ubj many readers took forever to decide Quirrell = Voldemort; I think I now know why.
I suggest that humans are instinctive “observation consequentialists.” That is, we think someone is competent and good if the observed results of their actions are benign. We weigh what we observe much more strongly than what we merely deduce. If we personally see their actions work out well, we’ll put aside a great deal of indirect evidence for their incompetence or vileness.
In HPMOR, Quirrell’s directly observed actions are mostly associated with Harry getting to be more of what he thinks he wants. Even rescuing Bellatrix amounts to Harry getting to save a broken lovelorn creature in terms of what we directly observe. To believe Quirrell evil we have to bring in all kinds of expected consequences to weigh against those immediate positive observations.
Does the resistance to saying Quirrell=Voldemort maybe reflect a broader unwillingness to overlook what we directly witness in favor of abstract deduction? If it does, this implies some interesting predictions about human behavior:
if you can be kind and moderate in your personal behavior, you can get away with incredible amounts of institutionally-mediated violence and extremism, especially to anyone who feels like they “know” you. Hypothesis: the most dangerous people are those who can give us the illusion of “knowing” them while they command an institution whose internal operations we don’t see.
More generally, an institution “wired” to do us harm can get away with it much longer than an individual doing it personally and directly. Faceless corporate evil, faceless societal evil, and faceless government evil are much more deadly than our emotional impulses realize. Hypothesis: we are biased to confuse the institutions with our attitude toward their leaders, or to refuse to act against the institutions because of the outward manners of their leaders.
if this ‘observation consequentialism’ bias is heuristic, then maybe it evolved as an anti-gossip function. In that case we should expect that people are too quick to believe outrageous things about people they can’t observe. Hypothesis: the further away someone is from your understanding, the less likely you are to think of them as mostly a typical human being, and the quicker you are to believe them a saint, a monster, or something similarly exciting.
And, alas for EY, hypothesis: telling a story about cunning disguises, in which the protagonist of the story does not see through those disguises, is almost always going to lead to lots of readers also not seeing through those disguises.
Additionally, abusive relationships persist because the victim just can’t help but forgive the abuser when the abuser is choosing to be nice. It can be hard to even believe your own memories of abuse when the abuser is smiling at you and giving you compliments.
I try to recall Quirrell murdering Rita Skeeter in cold blood every time I catch myself feeling like he’s the good guy in the story.
I don’t think anyone failed to see the signs that Quirrel is Voldemort in HPMOR. There are just those of us who believed it to be a Red Herring, because “that’s how stories are supposed to work.” If a potential solution to a mystery seems very obviously true in the first quarter of the story, then in most stories it’s probably not the true solution.
.
Of course, at this point there’s just no denying it.
That’s actually a surprisingly good reason. In real life, the best rationalist you know is probably not a character in a story and feeling a sense of opposing pressure when you disagree with them is probably a pretty good idea.
This should cause you to update down your view of Aumann’s Agreement theorem.
(I am reminded of many professional scientists tricked by charlatans when magicians were not fooled- because the scientists knew where to look for truth, and the magicians knew where to look for lies.)
Could you explain what you mean by this? I’m having trouble parsing “update down your view of”.
Aumann’s Agreement theorem is a neat true result about fictional entities. Its applicability to real entities is subjective, and based on how close you think the real entities are to the fictional entities. Increasing that distance makes AAT less relevant to how you live your life, and increasing that distance is what I mean by “update down your view of.”
My feeling is that those entities are really distant, to the point where AAT should not seriously alter your beliefs. “I trusted X because Y trusted X” is a recipe for disaster if you trust Y because of different domain-specific competence, rather than their deep knowledge of X.
if you can be kind and moderate in your personal behavior, you can get away with incredible amounts of institutionally-mediated violence and extremism, especially to anyone who feels like they “know” you. Hypothesis: the most dangerous people are those who can give us the illusion of “knowing” them while they command an institution whose internal operations we don’t see.
This suits extremely well with both local communities relationship to known criminals and to historical figures. Politics is a mind-killer and so on, but a lot of heroes of different nations have done some downright nasty stuff, but managed to keep their reputation due to perceptions about their personal manner. It has recently been used by leaders such as Chavez and Khomeini, but American presidents have also used this effect extensively (why kiss babies?) and historical figures from Cesar to Richard Lionheart and countless of medieval kings have also garnered good will by the actions they have undertaken in public while at the same time doing something in the opposite direction of way greater magnitude through their institutions of power.
I’m skeptical that people who’ve taken a long time to accept that Quirrel is Voldemort constitute a significant proportion of HPMoR readers. Sure, I’ve noticed a considerable number of them too, but HPMoR has a lot of readers. There’s a risk of availability bias here; a reader who expresses skepticism that Quirrel is Voldemort automatically attracts attention from anyone who thinks it’s obvious, whereas other people who think it’s obvious don’t.
Personally, I’ve had no trouble at all accepting that Quirrell is evil ever since his first class, where he praised Harry’s killing instinct. Villains pointing out and encouraging protagonists’ darker impulses is a time honored trope, and praising an eleven year old in front of a whole class of other children for his drive to kill seems pretty indicative of evil to me.
Part of the problem is what ‘he is Voldemort’ really means: he isn’t like canon Voldemort or even with how MOR Voldemort is reported to be.
As for his obvious evil: it’s too obvious, he seems to be the sort who enjoys playing the cynical villain but is actually, if not nice, at least nice to his friends. And Harry seems to be a friend. If he was trying to manipulate Harry he wouldn’t have called it intent to kill, he’d have called it being decisive or intelligent or somesuch.
Oddly enough, open villainy can be a great cloak for subtle villainy.
To be honest, I’m not even sure if Voldemort is Voldemort, in the sense of being the man behind the proverbial curtain here. Everything about him from the name up screams “assumed persona”: he’s far more theatrical a figure than a blood-purist demagogue would need to be, and some aspects of what he does even look counterproductive in that context. And while the canon Tom Riddle did all the same stuff and all for no particularly good reason, in the context of MoR I think we can assume that there’s an agenda behind it.
I don’t know for sure what that agenda is yet, but a good first step seems to be this question: why would you want to pose as a supervillain? As it happens, Eliezer has touched on that before.
Dumbledore claims Grindelwald was his dark counterpart, but Voldemort is incomprehensibly evil, because he’s not Dumbledore’s villain, he’s harry’s.(here.)
Harry has pretended to be dark (General Chaos, this.)
Added to this...
Harry looked at the fading sky.
He’d seen Professor Quirrell turn into a hardened criminal while facing the Auror, and the apparent change of personalities had been effortless, and complete.
Another woman had known the Defense Professor as ‘Jeremy Jaffe’.
How many different people are you, anyway?
I cannot say that I bothered keeping count.
You couldn’t help but wonder...
...whether ‘Professor Quirrell’ was just one more name on the list, just one more person that had been turned into, made up in the service of some unguessable goal.
Harry would always be wondering now, every time he talked to Professor Quirrell, if it was a mask, and what motive was behind that mask. With every dry smile, Harry would be trying to see what was pulling the levers on the lips.
...would seem to suggest that Quirrelmort was pretending.
As you pointed out, Eliezer has suggested that humanity might benefit from a Dark Lord to unite against.
To clarify, this is only weak evidence in favor of Nornagest’s theory, but it seems like we shouldn’t be postulating evil mutants without considering other possibilities.
Quirrell and Harry are both horcruxes of Voldemort, and there is a decent chance that Quirrell has guessed that this is the case by now, if he didn’t always know. Quirrell thus has a very good reason to be nice to Harry...they are partially the same person.
But just how much similarity does hpmor Voldemort bear to cannon Voldemort?
Intelligence boost aside, both Harry and Quirrell have the exact same motives as canon Voldemort (power and immortality). The only difference between them is that Harry has an ethical component to his utility function—that’s pretty much the only difference between Harry and Quirrell. Tom Riddle for his part is not against ethics—he just doesn’t care about them. There are different varieties of evil: let’s not confuse amorality with sadism.
So there is absolutely no reason why Quirrell should view Harry as an enemy, except where Harry interferes with his plans because of his morality. If Harry succeeds at all his goals, so does Quirrell (to some extent. There is still the “dominance” component of power, which is a zero sum game. It’s hard to tell how much Quirrell cares about that.)
Harry’s view of Quirrell is slightly more problematic. Because of Quirrell’s lack of ethics constraints, Quirrell has many more options open to achieve his power/immortality goal than Harry does. So while Harry doesn’t need to kill Quirrell, he does need to prevent him from achieving is goals in unethical ways.
In fact, my current prediction is that Harry will “win” by achieving Quirrell’s goals ethically, thereby making it unnecessary for Quirrell to behave immorally.
When reading through the first time, it did seem really obvious that Quirrell was an improved, much more rational version of Voldemort; so blatantly obvious that it made me think if it was a clear red herring. (In the same way that Snape is the canon red herring.) I wondered if Eliezer had reversed things, so that Snape is the real villain and Quirrell the real good guy...
However on re-reading, my prime suspect is now Professor Sprout (Chapter 13):
Maybe Professor Sprout was the Game Controller—the Head of House Hufflepuff would be the last person anyone would suspect, which ought to put her near the top of Harry’s list. He’d read one or two mystery novels, too
if you can be kind and moderate in your personal behavior, you can get away with incredible amounts of institutionally-mediated violence and extremism, especially to anyone who feels like they “know” you. Hypothesis: the most dangerous people are those who can give us the illusion of “knowing” them while they command an institution whose internal operations we don’t see.
Exactly! That’s just like what all the most infamous dictators did, and what Machiavelli recommends in The Prince.
Could someone who has been reading HPMOR more assiduously than me say whether and where it has been explicitly revealed, in the story itself, that Quirrel is Voldemort?
Ah. In that case, I choose to discount gur qr-choyvfurq nhgube pbzzrag ba gur znggre and predict that Quirrell, as we have seen him so far, is neither Voldemort, nor Voldemort’s puppet.
ETA: Edited only to rot13 something and correct Quirrell’s name.
I further predict, more speculatively, that Harry will wrongly come to the opposite conclusion, betray Quirrel, and only too late realise his mistake in turning against his strongest ally. Furthermore, Harry will make this mistake through applying what he has learned from Quirrel about good and evil to Quirrel himself.
All predictions based solely on my reading of the published story.
Beware the conjunction fallacy. Your scenario is complicated enough that its probability must be small, and also detailed enough that your brain is likely to try and overestimate that probability.
I think Quirrel is dying. He has lapses where he goes into “zombie-mode” and what is that, really?
It could be some kind of disease or magical illness- perhaps at the end of the year Harry permanently loses his mentor because the illness has finally killed Q or put him in a coma.
I’m not interested in a monetary bet, but when I reach into the unknown depths within and pull out a number, it’s 80%. For my more speculative predictions, I’d put the chance that I am right in every detail substantially below 50%. I shall be most gratified if it turns out that I nailed it.
Yes, really. Certainly, Quirrell has some significant relationship to Voldemort, and the questions of who Quirrell really is and what that relationship is have been raised in the fic. But I don’t think Eliezer has been deceiving the readers.
Ryvrmre unf pbzzragrq gung Ibyqrzbeg == Dhveeryy zber guna bapr. Va gur puncgre jurer Dhveeryy fnlf ur pnfg n fcryy ba gur Cvbarre cyndhr, gur nhgube’f abgrf pbagnvarq gur fragrapr “Ibyqrzbeg ubepehkrq gur Cvbarre cyndhr!”
The only way you can be remotely correct is if Eliezer has outright lied to us. You are almost directly calling Eliezer a liar. I believe that the probability of Eliezer being a liar is way, way, way lower than the probability that your theory, which is quite crackpottish and heretofore unsubstantiated even without considering Eliezer’s comments on the matter, is correct.
Lbh ner ersreevat gb qr-choyvfurq zngrevny, juvpu nf sne nf V’z pbaprearq qbrf abg rkvfg. Nalguvat gung Ryvrmre unf jvguqenja sebz pnaba, ur vf serr gb punatr ng jvyy. Zl vzcerffvba (V qba’g ernq zbfg bs gur UCZBE guernqf) vf gung gung pbzzrag bs Ryvrmre’f, juvpu ab ybatre rkvfgf, vf gur fbyr fbhepr sbe D=I. V nyfb abgr gung gur Cvbarre vapvqrag unccrarq jryy orsber gur riragf bs UCZBE; jurgure D jnf= I gura V qba’g unir na bcvavba ba.
I gave in-world reasons, based purely on published HPMOR canon, for thinking Q != V. A meta-consideration tending in the same direction is this. In Rowling canon, Q=V, but this is a dramatic reveal at some point in the first volume. Readers coming to HPMOR having read Rowling, seeing that this is an alternate version of the Potterverse, will immediately be wondering how all the characters of the two parallel universes correspond to each other. Hence the question, as soon as Quirrell appears: is Q V? Now, how can the answer to this question be revealed as a surprise, if the answer is that Q=V? The only way of making a mystery of it is to plant suggestive hints that Q=V and then, when the time comes, reveal Q != V.
Anyway, I’m right or I’m wrong, and the story itself will give the real answer soon enough.
Now, how can the answer to this question be revealed as a surprise, if the answer is that Q=V? The only way of making a mystery of it is to plant suggestive hints that Q=V and then, when the time comes, reveal Q != V.
What makes you think it’s supposed to be a surprise or a mystery? Maybe it’s supposed to be obvious.
Now, how can the answer to this question be revealed as a surprise, if the answer is that Q=V? The only way of making a mystery of it is to plant suggestive hints that Q=V and then, when the time comes, reveal Q != V.
Or, plant suggestive hints that Q=V, assume you’ll think it’s a red herring, then reveal Q=V. If there’s only one possible answer to a mystery, then it isn’t a mystery!
There’s only so many levels of bluffing that can fit into the cognitive space around the fic. Cf. the Unexpected Execution and the Blue-Eyed Monks. And look at all the people who are convinced already that Q=V. It will be a surprise to them if they turn out to be wrong.
And of course there’s this, from chapter 12:
Harry caught a glimpse of the back of his head, and it looked like Professor Quirrell might already be going bald, despite his seeming youth.
HPMOR!Quirrell doesn’t hide the back of his head, which is oddly bald! It’s a Significant Detail! A Clue! But Everyone is Ignoring it!
Just to amplify that, there has to be a reason that Rowling!Voldemort hides on the back of Q’s head. (Ok, the meta-reason might be that Rowling just thought this would be really creepy and didn’t think about what would actually be smart for V to do, but that’s Rowling!Potterverse all over: brilliant façade, nothing behind it.) So that reason, even if EY has to invent it on Rowling’s behalf (“Rowling!V is stupid” isn’t good enough), has to still apply. For EY!Voldemort to be in control of Quirrell some other way cannot be justified just by saying that EY!V is smarter and found a way. Specific differences need specific explanations.
When Dumbledore is entertaining the possibility that shade!Voldemort possessed Hermione he doesn’t say “But we know that’s not the case because the back of her head isn’t deformed.”
More generally, there’s been lots and lots of specific changes to how magic in general and certain magics in particular work. Forex: in canon there’s no such thing as “magical exhaustion”. Basically everything about Transfiguration is different. Combat is different, and far more detailed.
Given that AB has correctly surmised who Q is, and AB’s knowledge of Q is correct, circumstantial evidence that Q=V would be that Q re-establishes contact with his family and then they are all killed by V.
I currently believe that Q is V in some significant way, but they are not ‘the same person’ either.
HPMOR is making me rethink human nature—because of how people react to it.
The readers of HPMOR are likely an extremely biased sample of humanity, and I’d think particularly for this issue.
We like to let reality decide, and despite our general intellectual “confidence” in ourselves relative to others, we instinctively see that our inferences can and are likely to be wrong. We want to be less wrong, while others generally assume that their inferences are already right.
On the more speculative side, I think that there are many different motivations for accepting a belief as true, and compared to most other people, we are less motivated by hearsay evidence, even when it comes from the Voice of God. Fiction itself always implies some suspension of disbelief. For me, at least, the natural suspension includes the Voice of God and Rowling, which probably enhances the distrust of hearsay within in the story.
In the book, what we’ve seen of Quirrell has generally been positive, if not always cheery.
His one observable “crime” was killing Rita Skeeter, a crime for which I have a fair amount of sympathy, and would call overzealous justice more than criminality. She ruthlessly destroys lives with complete disregard for the truth to make a buck and amuse herself, and was destroyed in the act of such criminality, by one of her intended victims. The word I have for that is Justice. How many lives has she destroyed? How many lives did Quirrell save by destroying her? I don’t think I would have done the same, and wouldn’t have encouraged him to do so, but I wouldn’t hold it against Quirrell either.
She doesn’t destroy any lives. Who does the Inquirer destroy? She makes people embarrassed and the only effects we ever really see are schoolchildren making stupid assumptions about harry. Certainly nothing CLOSE to deserving the death penalty. Killing Skeeter was EVIL.
And so were a ton of people who read her article. She was pandering to her audience. Do you want to kill all of them too? Being biased is not worthy of capital punishment.
Well, when it means “written embarrassing things about people,” it tends to carry the additional meaning that those writings cost people their social standing and possibly their livelihoods, turning them into paraiahs and possibly landing them in prison.
In any case, accusing someone of being a Death Eater goes far beyond the territory of “embarrassing.” As we witnessed in the early chapters of the story, nearly everyone has traumatic experiences associated with the war. Death Eaters are The Hated Enemy from a war that still looms so large in the memories of the public that they’re afraid to say the name of their leader. On the face of it, this should be at least as weighty an accusation as accusing a schoolteacher of being a member of al-Qaeda.
1 no one has turned into a pariah or gotten into prison because of her tabloid, unless you count harry being slightly shunned by people who don’t matter.
2, Is accusing someone of being a secret Deatheater really that different than all the people that accuse Obama of being a secret muslim? It’s sensationalist nonsense that no reasonable person believes. No one ACTED on the belief that Quirrel is a secret deatheater, and I doubt anyone seriously believed it anyway.
3, Al Qaeda has no Lucius Malfoy. Being known to be a former Deatheater doesn’t seem to cause him that much trouble.
Slightly shunned? He essentially went from hero to outcast, and “people who don’t matter” consisted of the majority of the wizarding public, in school and out. If he hadn’t proven himself right about basically everything, that reputation could have followed him for the rest of his life. Do you think your livelihood wouldn’t be affected if most of your country thought you were, as she put it, “dangerously disturbed?”
And you’re arguing that “no one” was turned into a paraiah or imprisoned because of her, when our entire sample of people she’s smeared is a number we can count on our fingers, out of a career of more than a decade built on attacking people’s reputations.
Lucius is widely agreed to have been a Death Eater, at least by his political opponents, but he’s also been found innocent by the judicial system. O. J. Simpson is widely agreed to be a murderer, and it certainly affects how the public views him, but he’s not actually being punished for it. Both Lucius and O. J. have the advantage of already being rich, and not needing to hold down a job. Other characters, on the other hand, have been punished for being Death Eaters by life in Azkaban.
Rita accusing Quirrell of being a Death Eater is thus quite different from accusing Obama of being a secret Muslim, as being a Muslim isn’t actually illegal, and that allegation was only believed by people who had already formed their opinions on him, whereas Rita has an established record of changing people’s opinions, and creating them for people who haven’t already.
O. J. Simpson is widely agreed to be a murderer, and it certainly affects how the public views him, but he’s not actually being punished for it. Both Lucius and O. J. have the advantage of already being rich
This might have been true to some extent in 1997, but not so much today. By the end of the civil trial, O.J had spent most of his money on his defense, and he had to even give up prized possessions like his Heisman Trophy in order to pay the damages. He didn’t have enough property to pay all the damages, and the only reason he had anything left after that is that California law doesn’t allow taking pensions to pay for damages, so he still had his NFL retirement to support him. But right now, he’s serving a long prison sentence for armed robbery from trying to take back some of his football memorabilia—some of the folks he engaged in that offense with got away scot-free, since the prosecution was much more interested in taking down O.J. So yes, the public perception did affect him.
Despite being largely built from real-world prototypes, the Death Eaters don’t have any great real-world analogies that I’m very familiar with. As a violent political organization that gained substantial power and waged a full-blown civil war quite recently, they seem close to the IRA, but they don’t have the historical context that colored that conflict; the strong blood-purity emphasis puts them close in some ways to Klansmen or neo-Nazis, or the early Nazi Party before it dropped its revolutionary angle, but there doesn’t seem to be a strong nationalist component and the methodology is different.
Point is, I’d forbear from reasoning too far by analogy here; the situation’s too unusual. About the best we can do is look at the in-universe consequences of various people’s actions, and from that perspective the accusation looks pretty damned weighty. Especially for a schoolteacher.
It’s worth noting that, in canon, Rita’s writing results in Hermione receiving piles of hate mail including booby-trapped letters containing toxic chemicals. It also results in the Ministry, as represented by Fudge, taking a very dim view of Harry on the evidence of her articles alone (“having funny turns all over the place”).
Given the apparent gullibility and quickness to violence of the general population in the Potterverse (with no comment on how this may or may not resemble the real world), it is entirely plausible that Rita’s other victims were also the targets of such abuse, including risks to their health. And let’s not even get started on the possibility of vigilante justice (you don’t mess with Lucius Malfoy because he is, in fact, Lucius Malfoy, but what about less well-defended targets?), or the way key institutions such as the Wizengamot are easily swayed by rumour and rhetoric.
In light of the above, I assign a very low probability to the hypothesis that Rita Skeeter’s writing has not resulted in cases of bodily harm and miscarriage of justice (up to and including Azkaban and/or death).
no one has turned into a pariah [...] because of her tabloid, unless you count harry being slightly shunned by people who don’t matter.
I think you need to recheck the standard definitions of “pariah”. Most people, I think, would consider his experiences “being turned into a pariah”, and I am unsure what definition of “pariah” you are using. In canon, government officials considered him sufficiently unreliable to discount his eyewitness testimony that Lord Voldemort had returned. That’s quite a fall for “the boy who lived”. If Skeeter can do that much damage in a single article, imagine if she had chosen an already unpopular target.
She worked at a newspaper and punished gossip stories that would sell. was she any more “Paid” than any other employee at a biased newspaper? It’s been a while since I read the relevant book but I don’t recall her being bribed by or taking orders from Lucius.
She worked at a newspaper and punished gossip stories that would sell
Gossip stories that were weapons (used by one side to prosecute two separate wars with thousands of casaulties) and acknowledged as such by all well-informed players; or are we going to claim that Skeeter, investigative reporter par excellence, somehow missed that she was really working for Malfoy despite everyone else knowing?
Whether Lucius hands her a sack of gold or signs a check to the Daily Prophet makes no difference. It would be like asking whether Tokyo Rose was paid on an hourly basis or annual salary.
(Or if the payment method does make a difference, I will remember the particular corporate and moral niceties for if I ever hire an assassin.)
canon!Skeeter was a tool of Fudge. Thus, if Fudge was a tool of Malfoy, then Skeeter was a tool of Malfoy. But I’m not convinced that Fudge knew that he was a Malfoy tool. Certainly, his reactions amount to “doing worse than Neville Chamberlain when confronting an evil tyrant,” which was a very advantageous position for the Ministry of Magic to take, from Malfoy’s point of view.
Nonetheless, my impression from canon was that Fudge’s “la-la-la I’m not listening strategy” was a happy accident from Malfoy’s point of view, not a planned strategy. And if Fudge was not conspiring with Malfoy, then it seems reasonable that Skeeter (a knowing lackey of Fudge) would not think she was one of Malfoy’s tools.
Of course, a substantial amount of this impression is based on my belief that Rowling was a terrible world-builder and that the canon Potterverse contained essentially zero competent plotters. For example, Chamber of Secrets is an unintended consequence of Malfoy’s petty act against a bureaucratic rival. Voldemort received no benefit from Malfoy’s acts, and Malfoy should have know that. Heck, Malfoy himself received no benefit, and didn’t even seem to expect one. In short, he shouldn’t have used a powerful Voldemort artifact the way he did.
Edit: None of this should be read as disagreeing with the view that Skeeter knew that a natural consequence of her work was destroying people’s lives and this didn’t bother her one bit.
That’s the impression of the characters in book 5, but the end of book 4 pretty clearly shows that Fudge’s impressions of Harry were guided by Skeeter, not the other way around.
“You are prepared to believe that Lord Voldemort has returned, on the word of a lunatic murderer, and a boy who… well…”
Fudge shot Harry another look, and Harry suddenly understood.
“You’ve been reading Rita Skeeter, Mr. Fudge,” he said quietly.
...
Fudge reddened slightly, but a defiant and obstinate look came over his face.
“And if I have?” he said, looking at Dumbledore. “If I have discovered that you’ve been keeping certain facts about the boy very quiet? A Parselmouth, eh? And having funny turns all over the place—”
As for what you said about Lucius being a shoddy plotter—well, he did fail in CoS, so you could make an argument to that opinion. But look at it from another point of view.
Through an excessive amount of force—an admittedly stupid move which did get him kicked off of the Board eventually—he got Dumbledore removed as Headmaster, and if Harry hadn’t triumphed against ridiculous odds, it likely would have stuck.
If Ginny had been caught releasing the Basilisk, Arthur is discredited, which would reverse those irritating acts that he was (somehow) making into law.
If Ginny fails to be saved, then either she gets blamed for everything and Arthur is discredited or she is taken to be another victim; either way and she would be dead, which is icing on the Flawless Instrument of Death’s cake.
If Ginny is saved but people don’t believe her about the diary controlling her actions (remember, Dumbledore was supposed to be gone), then Arthur is discredited.
We don’t know too much about how much Lucius knew about the diary, but he might have known that it would have targeted Harry, which would have been quite the coup.
If the diary would have escaped, I would argue that Voldemort would get something out of it; perhaps the life stolen from Ginny could have been given to Voldemort’s shade?
None of this mentions the fact that many mudbloods were supposed to die, which he would consider to be a good thing, at least.
Lucius did not succeed in CoS—at all, really, besides temporarily removing the headmaster—but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t planning to get anything out of it.
Where are you getting this? All we know about her is she writes semi-accurate stories about Harry in the books and Quirrel says she is Lucius’ pawn. Where do we hear about her writing propaganda during the wizarding wars? Her behavior makes just as much sense if she’s just a sensationalist writer trying to sell papers to credulous idiots as if she’s a paid servant of Lucius.
Semi-accurate? She blatantly makes things up and spins things in order to smear her subjects. You could as well call an article “semi-accurate” which accuses someone of being a child molester, when the reality is that they do, in fact, spend time around children.
I think that’s exactly what Drethelin meant when s/he said “semi-accurate”. The point is that all Skeeter did was make up gossip and at the end of the day that’s not that bad. If you can point to an actual instance of someone dying or coming to great harm that stemmed from a Skeeter article, then… you can think of ONE bad thing she did. And your proposed solution is to kill her?
Hermione solves the Skeeter problem in Canon without shedding any blood, and even she goes overboard on the justice by trapping the woman inside a glass jar for hours/days. I can think of plenty of ways to stifle Skeeter without even using teleportation or invisibility or time travel—imagine what a mighty wizard like Quirrel could do. Quirrel even says that he’s going to crush her (turns out he meant that literally) just for the sheer enjoyment of it, and not because it’s what she deserves.
I just think that the people who support killing Rita Skeeter probably decided that it was a good idea because they hated her, and then cast around for justifications that sounded better than that.
If you can point to an actual instance of someone dying or coming to great harm that stemmed from a Skeeter article, then… you can think of ONE bad thing she did.
If you dredged through canon, you would probably only come up with 20-30 deaths unequivocally and specifically at Voldemort’s hand as opposed to random Death Eaters, mysterious deaths, deaths inferred but not actually known to have been Voldemort’s doing, general carnage implied but not stated etc. Maybe he’s not such a bad guy after all!
Demanding specific incidents is like demanding specific incidents of lung cancer before you can discuss the moral guilt of tobacco executives. ‘Ah, but how do you know that lung cancer was thanks to their tobacco smoking? Lung cancer is pretty common, you know!’ Or power plants or...
(‘How do you know Skeeter’s articles helped kill this particular person during Voldemort’s ignored rise to power in canon, or helped him kill people during his first war? Can you prove that Skeeter’s article was either necessary or sufficient to keep the population apathetic and let people like Cedric Diggory die?’)
In the real world, we have the luxury of investigating propagandists like Anwar Al-Awlaki or Goebbels, and can even nail them all the way down to specific deaths—this Somali kid in Minneasota decided to become a jihadi, killing himself and 4 others, that sort of thing.
In the fictional world, alas, short of someone asking Rowling whether Skeeter’s articles contributed to any deaths, we cannot know. There’s no fact of the matter about it. It’s fake, it’s not real, it never happened.
In the real world, however, being the top reporter on a government propaganda rag… What sort of blood-guilt do you think a comparable North Korean reporter or news anchor (eg. Ri Chun Hee) bears?
If you dredged through canon, you would probably only come up with 20-30 deaths unequivocally and specifically at Voldemort’s hand as opposed to random Death Eaters, mysterious deaths, deaths inferred but not actually known to have been Voldemort’s doing, general carnage implied but not stated etc. Maybe he’s not such a bad guy after all!
But you’ve moved the goalposts. I didn’t ask for deaths that were unequivocally and specifically at Skeeter’s hand—there definitely aren’t ANY of those, so if that was our condition of guilt she’d be good and Voldemort would be bad. All I asked for were ones that could be traced back to one of her articles—perhaps there are one or two of those, but if we’re allowing that as our condition of guilt then Voldemort shares responsibility for just about every death we hear about in canon so he has hundreds if not thousands of deaths on his hands.
Either way, my point was that in order to argue that Skeeter’s death was justified on utilitarian grounds, one has to prove that killing her would save lives. Killing her definitely costs one life. Stopping her from publishing costs no lives. I’m not trying to argue that Skeeter is a good person, I’m just pointing out that in the grand scheme of things she’s not that bad, and that there are plenty of ways to eliminate her as a threat without getting blood on one’s hands.
Your example about the tobacco executives is misleading. We DO require evidence that tobacco kills in order to condemn tobacco executives as being morally bankrupt. Luckily, we have that evidence. I’m asking for evidence that Skeeter articles kill, because one of the main arguments of the Kill Skeeter camp seems to be that they do kill. If you can bring me that evidence I’ll continue to agree that Skeeter needs to be stopped but I still won’t agree that she should have been killed, any more than I want to kill tobacco executives.
I’m going to repeat that for the sake of clarity. My argument is not:
“Skeeter never hurt anyone so she should be spared.”
My argument is:
“Well, I don’t agree that Skeeter definitely did kill anyone—I want to hear more evidence. Even if she did, though, we don’t need to kill her to save lives, so we shouldn’t do that. Therefore, Quirrel did a bad thing.”
When did I ever propose killing her? Quirrell is evil, but just because Rita got herself killed by someone more evil than she was doesn’t mean she wasn’t a pretty terrible person.
Folks seem to be waving their hands at whether there’s anything definitive written about Rita causing real harm, so...
In canon, Rita was not portrayed as explicitly on anyone’s side, and probably the worst direct consequence of anything she wrote, that was explicitly mentioned, was Hermione receiving hate mail after being accused of using love potions. relevant HP wiki article
In HPMOR, If we take Quirrell at his word in Chapter 26, Rita was trying to destroy Harry’s reputation, which is a real harm. In chapter 22, Draco thinks “The Daily Prophet was one of Father’s primary tools, he used it like a wizard’s wand.”—and we all know the sorts of things Lucius gets up to with a wizard’s wand. In chapter 80, the Prophet printed stories directly accusing Hermione of trying to kill Draco, before her trial.
I haven’t been able to find any reference that Skeeter or the Prophet were aiding Voldemort during the War, in canon or MoR.
HPMOR is making me rethink human nature—because of how people react to it. This is a story full of cunning disguises, and readers seem reluctant to see past those disguises. RL rkcerffrq chmmyrzrag ng ubj many readers took forever to decide Quirrell = Voldemort; I think I now know why.
I suggest that humans are instinctive “observation consequentialists.” That is, we think someone is competent and good if the observed results of their actions are benign. We weigh what we observe much more strongly than what we merely deduce. If we personally see their actions work out well, we’ll put aside a great deal of indirect evidence for their incompetence or vileness.
In HPMOR, Quirrell’s directly observed actions are mostly associated with Harry getting to be more of what he thinks he wants. Even rescuing Bellatrix amounts to Harry getting to save a broken lovelorn creature in terms of what we directly observe. To believe Quirrell evil we have to bring in all kinds of expected consequences to weigh against those immediate positive observations.
Does the resistance to saying Quirrell=Voldemort maybe reflect a broader unwillingness to overlook what we directly witness in favor of abstract deduction? If it does, this implies some interesting predictions about human behavior:
if you can be kind and moderate in your personal behavior, you can get away with incredible amounts of institutionally-mediated violence and extremism, especially to anyone who feels like they “know” you. Hypothesis: the most dangerous people are those who can give us the illusion of “knowing” them while they command an institution whose internal operations we don’t see.
More generally, an institution “wired” to do us harm can get away with it much longer than an individual doing it personally and directly. Faceless corporate evil, faceless societal evil, and faceless government evil are much more deadly than our emotional impulses realize. Hypothesis: we are biased to confuse the institutions with our attitude toward their leaders, or to refuse to act against the institutions because of the outward manners of their leaders.
if this ‘observation consequentialism’ bias is heuristic, then maybe it evolved as an anti-gossip function. In that case we should expect that people are too quick to believe outrageous things about people they can’t observe. Hypothesis: the further away someone is from your understanding, the less likely you are to think of them as mostly a typical human being, and the quicker you are to believe them a saint, a monster, or something similarly exciting.
And, alas for EY, hypothesis: telling a story about cunning disguises, in which the protagonist of the story does not see through those disguises, is almost always going to lead to lots of readers also not seeing through those disguises.
Additionally, abusive relationships persist because the victim just can’t help but forgive the abuser when the abuser is choosing to be nice. It can be hard to even believe your own memories of abuse when the abuser is smiling at you and giving you compliments.
I try to recall Quirrell murdering Rita Skeeter in cold blood every time I catch myself feeling like he’s the good guy in the story.
I don’t think anyone failed to see the signs that Quirrel is Voldemort in HPMOR. There are just those of us who believed it to be a Red Herring, because “that’s how stories are supposed to work.” If a potential solution to a mystery seems very obviously true in the first quarter of the story, then in most stories it’s probably not the true solution. . Of course, at this point there’s just no denying it.
I think the reason I was reluctant to accept that Quirrell is Voldemort is that Harry is a lot smarter than me and he trusted Quirrell.
That’s actually a surprisingly good reason. In real life, the best rationalist you know is probably not a character in a story and feeling a sense of opposing pressure when you disagree with them is probably a pretty good idea.
This should cause you to update down your view of Aumann’s Agreement theorem.
(I am reminded of many professional scientists tricked by charlatans when magicians were not fooled- because the scientists knew where to look for truth, and the magicians knew where to look for lies.)
I have updated by learning of it’s existence.
Could you explain what you mean by this? I’m having trouble parsing “update down your view of”.
Aumann’s Agreement theorem is a neat true result about fictional entities. Its applicability to real entities is subjective, and based on how close you think the real entities are to the fictional entities. Increasing that distance makes AAT less relevant to how you live your life, and increasing that distance is what I mean by “update down your view of.”
My feeling is that those entities are really distant, to the point where AAT should not seriously alter your beliefs. “I trusted X because Y trusted X” is a recipe for disaster if you trust Y because of different domain-specific competence, rather than their deep knowledge of X.
Right, ok. I’d already thought that AAT is essentially irrelevant to actual human behavior, so I was confused what brought it up.
ETA: No idea why you were downvoted so far.
On fictional evidence?
Harry is eleven.
I’m twenty-one, and I’m hell of a lot dumber than him in every aspect—despite having an IQ in the top one percent of humanity (135).
I generally expect that learning who to trust is something that comes from age and experience more than IQ.
Or it’s just the halo effect, since Quirrell is awesome and of course awesome people are always good. You are making things up!
This suits extremely well with both local communities relationship to known criminals and to historical figures. Politics is a mind-killer and so on, but a lot of heroes of different nations have done some downright nasty stuff, but managed to keep their reputation due to perceptions about their personal manner. It has recently been used by leaders such as Chavez and Khomeini, but American presidents have also used this effect extensively (why kiss babies?) and historical figures from Cesar to Richard Lionheart and countless of medieval kings have also garnered good will by the actions they have undertaken in public while at the same time doing something in the opposite direction of way greater magnitude through their institutions of power.
I’m skeptical that people who’ve taken a long time to accept that Quirrel is Voldemort constitute a significant proportion of HPMoR readers. Sure, I’ve noticed a considerable number of them too, but HPMoR has a lot of readers. There’s a risk of availability bias here; a reader who expresses skepticism that Quirrel is Voldemort automatically attracts attention from anyone who thinks it’s obvious, whereas other people who think it’s obvious don’t.
Personally, I’ve had no trouble at all accepting that Quirrell is evil ever since his first class, where he praised Harry’s killing instinct. Villains pointing out and encouraging protagonists’ darker impulses is a time honored trope, and praising an eleven year old in front of a whole class of other children for his drive to kill seems pretty indicative of evil to me.
Part of the problem is what ‘he is Voldemort’ really means: he isn’t like canon Voldemort or even with how MOR Voldemort is reported to be.
As for his obvious evil: it’s too obvious, he seems to be the sort who enjoys playing the cynical villain but is actually, if not nice, at least nice to his friends. And Harry seems to be a friend. If he was trying to manipulate Harry he wouldn’t have called it intent to kill, he’d have called it being decisive or intelligent or somesuch.
Oddly enough, open villainy can be a great cloak for subtle villainy.
To be honest, I’m not even sure if Voldemort is Voldemort, in the sense of being the man behind the proverbial curtain here. Everything about him from the name up screams “assumed persona”: he’s far more theatrical a figure than a blood-purist demagogue would need to be, and some aspects of what he does even look counterproductive in that context. And while the canon Tom Riddle did all the same stuff and all for no particularly good reason, in the context of MoR I think we can assume that there’s an agenda behind it.
I don’t know for sure what that agenda is yet, but a good first step seems to be this question: why would you want to pose as a supervillain? As it happens, Eliezer has touched on that before.
More proof:
Dumbledore claims Grindelwald was his dark counterpart, but Voldemort is incomprehensibly evil, because he’s not Dumbledore’s villain, he’s harry’s.(here.)
Harry is very, very good at pretending to be other people.
Harry has pretended to be dark (General Chaos, this.)
Added to this...
...would seem to suggest that Quirrelmort was pretending.
As you pointed out, Eliezer has suggested that humanity might benefit from a Dark Lord to unite against.
And Quirrell has used Voldemort as a reason for magical britain to unite.
To clarify, this is only weak evidence in favor of Nornagest’s theory, but it seems like we shouldn’t be postulating evil mutants without considering other possibilities.
Quirrell and Harry are both horcruxes of Voldemort, and there is a decent chance that Quirrell has guessed that this is the case by now, if he didn’t always know. Quirrell thus has a very good reason to be nice to Harry...they are partially the same person.
But just how much similarity does hpmor Voldemort bear to cannon Voldemort?
Intelligence boost aside, both Harry and Quirrell have the exact same motives as canon Voldemort (power and immortality). The only difference between them is that Harry has an ethical component to his utility function—that’s pretty much the only difference between Harry and Quirrell. Tom Riddle for his part is not against ethics—he just doesn’t care about them. There are different varieties of evil: let’s not confuse amorality with sadism.
So there is absolutely no reason why Quirrell should view Harry as an enemy, except where Harry interferes with his plans because of his morality. If Harry succeeds at all his goals, so does Quirrell (to some extent. There is still the “dominance” component of power, which is a zero sum game. It’s hard to tell how much Quirrell cares about that.)
Harry’s view of Quirrell is slightly more problematic. Because of Quirrell’s lack of ethics constraints, Quirrell has many more options open to achieve his power/immortality goal than Harry does. So while Harry doesn’t need to kill Quirrell, he does need to prevent him from achieving is goals in unethical ways.
In fact, my current prediction is that Harry will “win” by achieving Quirrell’s goals ethically, thereby making it unnecessary for Quirrell to behave immorally.
Some thoughts…
When reading through the first time, it did seem really obvious that Quirrell was an improved, much more rational version of Voldemort; so blatantly obvious that it made me think if it was a clear red herring. (In the same way that Snape is the canon red herring.) I wondered if Eliezer had reversed things, so that Snape is the real villain and Quirrell the real good guy...
However on re-reading, my prime suspect is now Professor Sprout (Chapter 13):
Of course, everyone knows that, just like they know Dumbledore’s not really insane, it’s just a cover!
Exactly! That’s just like what all the most infamous dictators did, and what Machiavelli recommends in The Prince.
Your third sentence (at least up to the semicolon) should be rot13ed, although the proposition it expresses is pretty well known.
How about the first five words?
OK, I guess.
Could someone who has been reading HPMOR more assiduously than me say whether and where it has been explicitly revealed, in the story itself, that Quirrel is Voldemort?
It has not.
Ah. In that case, I choose to discount gur qr-choyvfurq nhgube pbzzrag ba gur znggre and predict that Quirrell, as we have seen him so far, is neither Voldemort, nor Voldemort’s puppet.
ETA: Edited only to rot13 something and correct Quirrell’s name.
I further predict, more speculatively, that Harry will wrongly come to the opposite conclusion, betray Quirrel, and only too late realise his mistake in turning against his strongest ally. Furthermore, Harry will make this mistake through applying what he has learned from Quirrel about good and evil to Quirrel himself.
All predictions based solely on my reading of the published story.
And furthermore, as a result of this, Harry’s eventual victory will come at far greater cost than it otherwise would.
Beware the conjunction fallacy. Your scenario is complicated enough that its probability must be small, and also detailed enough that your brain is likely to try and overestimate that probability.
Of course. As I said in another comment, I rate the combined probability substantially below 0.5.
I think Quirrel is dying. He has lapses where he goes into “zombie-mode” and what is that, really? It could be some kind of disease or magical illness- perhaps at the end of the year Harry permanently loses his mentor because the illness has finally killed Q or put him in a coma.
What odds would you give for that?
I’m not interested in a monetary bet, but when I reach into the unknown depths within and pull out a number, it’s 80%. For my more speculative predictions, I’d put the chance that I am right in every detail substantially below 50%. I shall be most gratified if it turns out that I nailed it.
Neither am I; I should have said “probability”.
...Wow. Really? Bearing in mind that Eliezer is on record as saying he does not deceive his readers with red herrings?
Yes, really. Certainly, Quirrell has some significant relationship to Voldemort, and the questions of who Quirrell really is and what that relationship is have been raised in the fic. But I don’t think Eliezer has been deceiving the readers.
Some bits of the foregoing discussion really ought to be rot13ed.
Spoilers ahoy:
Ryvrmre unf pbzzragrq gung Ibyqrzbeg == Dhveeryy zber guna bapr. Va gur puncgre jurer Dhveeryy fnlf ur pnfg n fcryy ba gur Cvbarre cyndhr, gur nhgube’f abgrf pbagnvarq gur fragrapr “Ibyqrzbeg ubepehkrq gur Cvbarre cyndhr!”
The only way you can be remotely correct is if Eliezer has outright lied to us. You are almost directly calling Eliezer a liar. I believe that the probability of Eliezer being a liar is way, way, way lower than the probability that your theory, which is quite crackpottish and heretofore unsubstantiated even without considering Eliezer’s comments on the matter, is correct.
Beware the Löbian death spiral.
Lbh ner ersreevat gb qr-choyvfurq zngrevny, juvpu nf sne nf V’z pbaprearq qbrf abg rkvfg. Nalguvat gung Ryvrmre unf jvguqenja sebz pnaba, ur vf serr gb punatr ng jvyy. Zl vzcerffvba (V qba’g ernq zbfg bs gur UCZBE guernqf) vf gung gung pbzzrag bs Ryvrmre’f, juvpu ab ybatre rkvfgf, vf gur fbyr fbhepr sbe D=I. V nyfb abgr gung gur Cvbarre vapvqrag unccrarq jryy orsber gur riragf bs UCZBE; jurgure D jnf= I gura V qba’g unir na bcvavba ba.
I gave in-world reasons, based purely on published HPMOR canon, for thinking Q != V. A meta-consideration tending in the same direction is this. In Rowling canon, Q=V, but this is a dramatic reveal at some point in the first volume. Readers coming to HPMOR having read Rowling, seeing that this is an alternate version of the Potterverse, will immediately be wondering how all the characters of the two parallel universes correspond to each other. Hence the question, as soon as Quirrell appears: is Q V? Now, how can the answer to this question be revealed as a surprise, if the answer is that Q=V? The only way of making a mystery of it is to plant suggestive hints that Q=V and then, when the time comes, reveal Q != V.
Anyway, I’m right or I’m wrong, and the story itself will give the real answer soon enough.
What makes you think it’s supposed to be a surprise or a mystery? Maybe it’s supposed to be obvious.
Or, plant suggestive hints that Q=V, assume you’ll think it’s a red herring, then reveal Q=V. If there’s only one possible answer to a mystery, then it isn’t a mystery!
There’s only so many levels of bluffing that can fit into the cognitive space around the fic. Cf. the Unexpected Execution and the Blue-Eyed Monks. And look at all the people who are convinced already that Q=V. It will be a surprise to them if they turn out to be wrong.
And of course there’s this, from chapter 12:
HPMOR!Quirrell doesn’t hide the back of his head, which is oddly bald! It’s a Significant Detail! A Clue! But Everyone is Ignoring it!
I took that particular passage as evidence that Rational!Voldemort is not so incompetent as to risk discovery through hat-removal.
I reject this explanation simply because it isn’t an interesting explanation.
Just to amplify that, there has to be a reason that Rowling!Voldemort hides on the back of Q’s head. (Ok, the meta-reason might be that Rowling just thought this would be really creepy and didn’t think about what would actually be smart for V to do, but that’s Rowling!Potterverse all over: brilliant façade, nothing behind it.) So that reason, even if EY has to invent it on Rowling’s behalf (“Rowling!V is stupid” isn’t good enough), has to still apply. For EY!Voldemort to be in control of Quirrell some other way cannot be justified just by saying that EY!V is smarter and found a way. Specific differences need specific explanations.
When Dumbledore is entertaining the possibility that shade!Voldemort possessed Hermione he doesn’t say “But we know that’s not the case because the back of her head isn’t deformed.”
More generally, there’s been lots and lots of specific changes to how magic in general and certain magics in particular work. Forex: in canon there’s no such thing as “magical exhaustion”. Basically everything about Transfiguration is different. Combat is different, and far more detailed.
Given that AB has correctly surmised who Q is, and AB’s knowledge of Q is correct, circumstantial evidence that Q=V would be that Q re-establishes contact with his family and then they are all killed by V.
I currently believe that Q is V in some significant way, but they are not ‘the same person’ either.
You deserve far more karma than what you received, my friend.
By the way, could you link me to the argument expressed here?
Right here.
Thanks.
I don’t understand why this was downvoted… the original source has been deleted but Glumph posted a link to an accurate copy of it.
The readers of HPMOR are likely an extremely biased sample of humanity, and I’d think particularly for this issue.
We like to let reality decide, and despite our general intellectual “confidence” in ourselves relative to others, we instinctively see that our inferences can and are likely to be wrong. We want to be less wrong, while others generally assume that their inferences are already right.
On the more speculative side, I think that there are many different motivations for accepting a belief as true, and compared to most other people, we are less motivated by hearsay evidence, even when it comes from the Voice of God. Fiction itself always implies some suspension of disbelief. For me, at least, the natural suspension includes the Voice of God and Rowling, which probably enhances the distrust of hearsay within in the story.
In the book, what we’ve seen of Quirrell has generally been positive, if not always cheery.
His one observable “crime” was killing Rita Skeeter, a crime for which I have a fair amount of sympathy, and would call overzealous justice more than criminality. She ruthlessly destroys lives with complete disregard for the truth to make a buck and amuse herself, and was destroyed in the act of such criminality, by one of her intended victims. The word I have for that is Justice. How many lives has she destroyed? How many lives did Quirrell save by destroying her? I don’t think I would have done the same, and wouldn’t have encouraged him to do so, but I wouldn’t hold it against Quirrell either.
She doesn’t destroy any lives. Who does the Inquirer destroy? She makes people embarrassed and the only effects we ever really see are schoolchildren making stupid assumptions about harry. Certainly nothing CLOSE to deserving the death penalty. Killing Skeeter was EVIL.
Skeeter was a paid witting propagandizing accomplice for a Death Eater in both MoR and canon.
And she was perfectly willing to tar a Hogwarts Professor as a death eater, and tar Harry as a Dark Lord in training.
And so were a ton of people who read her article. She was pandering to her audience. Do you want to kill all of them too? Being biased is not worthy of capital punishment.
Whether or not being biased is worthy of capital punishment is a completely different issue than whether she has in fact destroyed people’s lives.
“Destroyed people’s lives” is an odd expression.
It can sometimes mean “kidnapped people, held them in prisons, and tortured them to death.”
And it can sometimes mean “written embarrassing things about people.”
Well, when it means “written embarrassing things about people,” it tends to carry the additional meaning that those writings cost people their social standing and possibly their livelihoods, turning them into paraiahs and possibly landing them in prison.
In any case, accusing someone of being a Death Eater goes far beyond the territory of “embarrassing.” As we witnessed in the early chapters of the story, nearly everyone has traumatic experiences associated with the war. Death Eaters are The Hated Enemy from a war that still looms so large in the memories of the public that they’re afraid to say the name of their leader. On the face of it, this should be at least as weighty an accusation as accusing a schoolteacher of being a member of al-Qaeda.
Several problems with this:
1 no one has turned into a pariah or gotten into prison because of her tabloid, unless you count harry being slightly shunned by people who don’t matter.
2, Is accusing someone of being a secret Deatheater really that different than all the people that accuse Obama of being a secret muslim? It’s sensationalist nonsense that no reasonable person believes. No one ACTED on the belief that Quirrel is a secret deatheater, and I doubt anyone seriously believed it anyway.
3, Al Qaeda has no Lucius Malfoy. Being known to be a former Deatheater doesn’t seem to cause him that much trouble.
Slightly shunned? He essentially went from hero to outcast, and “people who don’t matter” consisted of the majority of the wizarding public, in school and out. If he hadn’t proven himself right about basically everything, that reputation could have followed him for the rest of his life. Do you think your livelihood wouldn’t be affected if most of your country thought you were, as she put it, “dangerously disturbed?”
And you’re arguing that “no one” was turned into a paraiah or imprisoned because of her, when our entire sample of people she’s smeared is a number we can count on our fingers, out of a career of more than a decade built on attacking people’s reputations.
Lucius is widely agreed to have been a Death Eater, at least by his political opponents, but he’s also been found innocent by the judicial system. O. J. Simpson is widely agreed to be a murderer, and it certainly affects how the public views him, but he’s not actually being punished for it. Both Lucius and O. J. have the advantage of already being rich, and not needing to hold down a job. Other characters, on the other hand, have been punished for being Death Eaters by life in Azkaban.
Rita accusing Quirrell of being a Death Eater is thus quite different from accusing Obama of being a secret Muslim, as being a Muslim isn’t actually illegal, and that allegation was only believed by people who had already formed their opinions on him, whereas Rita has an established record of changing people’s opinions, and creating them for people who haven’t already.
This might have been true to some extent in 1997, but not so much today. By the end of the civil trial, O.J had spent most of his money on his defense, and he had to even give up prized possessions like his Heisman Trophy in order to pay the damages. He didn’t have enough property to pay all the damages, and the only reason he had anything left after that is that California law doesn’t allow taking pensions to pay for damages, so he still had his NFL retirement to support him. But right now, he’s serving a long prison sentence for armed robbery from trying to take back some of his football memorabilia—some of the folks he engaged in that offense with got away scot-free, since the prosecution was much more interested in taking down O.J. So yes, the public perception did affect him.
Despite being largely built from real-world prototypes, the Death Eaters don’t have any great real-world analogies that I’m very familiar with. As a violent political organization that gained substantial power and waged a full-blown civil war quite recently, they seem close to the IRA, but they don’t have the historical context that colored that conflict; the strong blood-purity emphasis puts them close in some ways to Klansmen or neo-Nazis, or the early Nazi Party before it dropped its revolutionary angle, but there doesn’t seem to be a strong nationalist component and the methodology is different.
Point is, I’d forbear from reasoning too far by analogy here; the situation’s too unusual. About the best we can do is look at the in-universe consequences of various people’s actions, and from that perspective the accusation looks pretty damned weighty. Especially for a schoolteacher.
It’s worth noting that, in canon, Rita’s writing results in Hermione receiving piles of hate mail including booby-trapped letters containing toxic chemicals. It also results in the Ministry, as represented by Fudge, taking a very dim view of Harry on the evidence of her articles alone (“having funny turns all over the place”).
Given the apparent gullibility and quickness to violence of the general population in the Potterverse (with no comment on how this may or may not resemble the real world), it is entirely plausible that Rita’s other victims were also the targets of such abuse, including risks to their health. And let’s not even get started on the possibility of vigilante justice (you don’t mess with Lucius Malfoy because he is, in fact, Lucius Malfoy, but what about less well-defended targets?), or the way key institutions such as the Wizengamot are easily swayed by rumour and rhetoric.
In light of the above, I assign a very low probability to the hypothesis that Rita Skeeter’s writing has not resulted in cases of bodily harm and miscarriage of justice (up to and including Azkaban and/or death).
I think you need to recheck the standard definitions of “pariah”. Most people, I think, would consider his experiences “being turned into a pariah”, and I am unsure what definition of “pariah” you are using. In canon, government officials considered him sufficiently unreliable to discount his eyewitness testimony that Lord Voldemort had returned. That’s quite a fall for “the boy who lived”. If Skeeter can do that much damage in a single article, imagine if she had chosen an already unpopular target.
That said, she certainly didn’t “deserve” death.
She worked at a newspaper and punished gossip stories that would sell. was she any more “Paid” than any other employee at a biased newspaper? It’s been a while since I read the relevant book but I don’t recall her being bribed by or taking orders from Lucius.
Gossip stories that were weapons (used by one side to prosecute two separate wars with thousands of casaulties) and acknowledged as such by all well-informed players; or are we going to claim that Skeeter, investigative reporter par excellence, somehow missed that she was really working for Malfoy despite everyone else knowing?
Whether Lucius hands her a sack of gold or signs a check to the Daily Prophet makes no difference. It would be like asking whether Tokyo Rose was paid on an hourly basis or annual salary.
(Or if the payment method does make a difference, I will remember the particular corporate and moral niceties for if I ever hire an assassin.)
canon!Skeeter was a tool of Fudge. Thus, if Fudge was a tool of Malfoy, then Skeeter was a tool of Malfoy. But I’m not convinced that Fudge knew that he was a Malfoy tool. Certainly, his reactions amount to “doing worse than Neville Chamberlain when confronting an evil tyrant,” which was a very advantageous position for the Ministry of Magic to take, from Malfoy’s point of view.
Nonetheless, my impression from canon was that Fudge’s “la-la-la I’m not listening strategy” was a happy accident from Malfoy’s point of view, not a planned strategy. And if Fudge was not conspiring with Malfoy, then it seems reasonable that Skeeter (a knowing lackey of Fudge) would not think she was one of Malfoy’s tools.
Of course, a substantial amount of this impression is based on my belief that Rowling was a terrible world-builder and that the canon Potterverse contained essentially zero competent plotters. For example, Chamber of Secrets is an unintended consequence of Malfoy’s petty act against a bureaucratic rival. Voldemort received no benefit from Malfoy’s acts, and Malfoy should have know that. Heck, Malfoy himself received no benefit, and didn’t even seem to expect one. In short, he shouldn’t have used a powerful Voldemort artifact the way he did.
Edit: None of this should be read as disagreeing with the view that Skeeter knew that a natural consequence of her work was destroying people’s lives and this didn’t bother her one bit.
That’s the impression of the characters in book 5, but the end of book 4 pretty clearly shows that Fudge’s impressions of Harry were guided by Skeeter, not the other way around.
As for what you said about Lucius being a shoddy plotter—well, he did fail in CoS, so you could make an argument to that opinion. But look at it from another point of view.
Through an excessive amount of force—an admittedly stupid move which did get him kicked off of the Board eventually—he got Dumbledore removed as Headmaster, and if Harry hadn’t triumphed against ridiculous odds, it likely would have stuck.
If Ginny had been caught releasing the Basilisk, Arthur is discredited, which would reverse those irritating acts that he was (somehow) making into law.
If Ginny fails to be saved, then either she gets blamed for everything and Arthur is discredited or she is taken to be another victim; either way and she would be dead, which is icing on the Flawless Instrument of Death’s cake.
If Ginny is saved but people don’t believe her about the diary controlling her actions (remember, Dumbledore was supposed to be gone), then Arthur is discredited.
We don’t know too much about how much Lucius knew about the diary, but he might have known that it would have targeted Harry, which would have been quite the coup.
If the diary would have escaped, I would argue that Voldemort would get something out of it; perhaps the life stolen from Ginny could have been given to Voldemort’s shade?
None of this mentions the fact that many mudbloods were supposed to die, which he would consider to be a good thing, at least.
Lucius did not succeed in CoS—at all, really, besides temporarily removing the headmaster—but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t planning to get anything out of it.
Where are you getting this? All we know about her is she writes semi-accurate stories about Harry in the books and Quirrel says she is Lucius’ pawn. Where do we hear about her writing propaganda during the wizarding wars? Her behavior makes just as much sense if she’s just a sensationalist writer trying to sell papers to credulous idiots as if she’s a paid servant of Lucius.
Semi-accurate? She blatantly makes things up and spins things in order to smear her subjects. You could as well call an article “semi-accurate” which accuses someone of being a child molester, when the reality is that they do, in fact, spend time around children.
Setting aside that incredibly weighted analogy…
I think that’s exactly what Drethelin meant when s/he said “semi-accurate”. The point is that all Skeeter did was make up gossip and at the end of the day that’s not that bad. If you can point to an actual instance of someone dying or coming to great harm that stemmed from a Skeeter article, then… you can think of ONE bad thing she did. And your proposed solution is to kill her?
Hermione solves the Skeeter problem in Canon without shedding any blood, and even she goes overboard on the justice by trapping the woman inside a glass jar for hours/days. I can think of plenty of ways to stifle Skeeter without even using teleportation or invisibility or time travel—imagine what a mighty wizard like Quirrel could do. Quirrel even says that he’s going to crush her (turns out he meant that literally) just for the sheer enjoyment of it, and not because it’s what she deserves.
I just think that the people who support killing Rita Skeeter probably decided that it was a good idea because they hated her, and then cast around for justifications that sounded better than that.
If you dredged through canon, you would probably only come up with 20-30 deaths unequivocally and specifically at Voldemort’s hand as opposed to random Death Eaters, mysterious deaths, deaths inferred but not actually known to have been Voldemort’s doing, general carnage implied but not stated etc. Maybe he’s not such a bad guy after all!
Demanding specific incidents is like demanding specific incidents of lung cancer before you can discuss the moral guilt of tobacco executives. ‘Ah, but how do you know that lung cancer was thanks to their tobacco smoking? Lung cancer is pretty common, you know!’ Or power plants or...
(‘How do you know Skeeter’s articles helped kill this particular person during Voldemort’s ignored rise to power in canon, or helped him kill people during his first war? Can you prove that Skeeter’s article was either necessary or sufficient to keep the population apathetic and let people like Cedric Diggory die?’)
In the real world, we have the luxury of investigating propagandists like Anwar Al-Awlaki or Goebbels, and can even nail them all the way down to specific deaths—this Somali kid in Minneasota decided to become a jihadi, killing himself and 4 others, that sort of thing.
In the fictional world, alas, short of someone asking Rowling whether Skeeter’s articles contributed to any deaths, we cannot know. There’s no fact of the matter about it. It’s fake, it’s not real, it never happened.
In the real world, however, being the top reporter on a government propaganda rag… What sort of blood-guilt do you think a comparable North Korean reporter or news anchor (eg. Ri Chun Hee) bears?
But you’ve moved the goalposts. I didn’t ask for deaths that were unequivocally and specifically at Skeeter’s hand—there definitely aren’t ANY of those, so if that was our condition of guilt she’d be good and Voldemort would be bad. All I asked for were ones that could be traced back to one of her articles—perhaps there are one or two of those, but if we’re allowing that as our condition of guilt then Voldemort shares responsibility for just about every death we hear about in canon so he has hundreds if not thousands of deaths on his hands.
Either way, my point was that in order to argue that Skeeter’s death was justified on utilitarian grounds, one has to prove that killing her would save lives. Killing her definitely costs one life. Stopping her from publishing costs no lives. I’m not trying to argue that Skeeter is a good person, I’m just pointing out that in the grand scheme of things she’s not that bad, and that there are plenty of ways to eliminate her as a threat without getting blood on one’s hands.
Your example about the tobacco executives is misleading. We DO require evidence that tobacco kills in order to condemn tobacco executives as being morally bankrupt. Luckily, we have that evidence. I’m asking for evidence that Skeeter articles kill, because one of the main arguments of the Kill Skeeter camp seems to be that they do kill. If you can bring me that evidence I’ll continue to agree that Skeeter needs to be stopped but I still won’t agree that she should have been killed, any more than I want to kill tobacco executives.
I’m going to repeat that for the sake of clarity. My argument is not:
My argument is:
When did I ever propose killing her? Quirrell is evil, but just because Rita got herself killed by someone more evil than she was doesn’t mean she wasn’t a pretty terrible person.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to point the finger at you specifically. I should more correctly have written, “the proposed solution,” or something.
Folks seem to be waving their hands at whether there’s anything definitive written about Rita causing real harm, so...
In canon, Rita was not portrayed as explicitly on anyone’s side, and probably the worst direct consequence of anything she wrote, that was explicitly mentioned, was Hermione receiving hate mail after being accused of using love potions. relevant HP wiki article
In HPMOR, If we take Quirrell at his word in Chapter 26, Rita was trying to destroy Harry’s reputation, which is a real harm. In chapter 22, Draco thinks “The Daily Prophet was one of Father’s primary tools, he used it like a wizard’s wand.”—and we all know the sorts of things Lucius gets up to with a wizard’s wand. In chapter 80, the Prophet printed stories directly accusing Hermione of trying to kill Draco, before her trial.
I haven’t been able to find any reference that Skeeter or the Prophet were aiding Voldemort during the War, in canon or MoR.