And furthermore, as a result of this, Harry’s eventual victory will come at far greater cost than it otherwise would.
Beware the conjunction fallacy. Your scenario is complicated enough that its probability must be small, and also detailed enough that your brain is likely to try and overestimate that probability.
Of course. As I said in another comment, I rate the combined probability substantially below 0.5.
And furthermore, as a result of this, Harry’s eventual victory will come at far greater cost than it otherwise would.
Beware the conjunction fallacy. Your scenario is complicated enough that its probability must be small, and also detailed enough that your brain is likely to try and overestimate that probability.
Of course. As I said in another comment, I rate the combined probability substantially below 0.5.