To be clear, I am confident that governments and militaries will be extremely interested in AI.
It makes perfect sense that it will turn into a Manhattan project, and it probably (p>0.999999...) already has. The idea that the government, military, and intelligence agencies have not yet received the memo about AI/AGI/ASI is beyond naive.
Just like the extreme advantages of being the first to develop a nuclear bomb, being the first to achieve AGI might carry the same EXTREME advantages.
We’re pretty sure it hasn’t already become a manhattan project because top-tier researchers haven’t visibly left the public sphere. Also, the government really seems quite clueless about this. Congressional hearing have the appearance of everyone grappling with these ideas for the first time, and getting a lot of it quite wrong.
Well, how many of in congress and the senate heard about the Manhattan project? “Keeping 120,000 people quiet would be impossible; therefore only a small privileged cadre of inner scientists and officials knew about the atomic bomb’s development. In fact, Vice-President Truman had never heard of the Manhattan Project until he became President Truman.” https://www.ushistory.org/us/51f.asp
When it comes to the scientists, we have no idea if the work they do in “private” companies is a part of a bigger government led effort. Which would be the most efficient way I suppose.
I don’t really understand why some people seem to get so upset about the idea that the government/military is involved in developing cutting edge technology. Like AI is some thing that governments/militaries are not aloud to touch? The military industrial complex has been and will always be involved in this kind of endeavors.
These are good points. I fully agree that the military will be involved. I think it’s almost inevitable that the government and national security apparatus will see the potential before AGI is smart enough to totally outmaneuver their attempts to take control. I still don’t think they are very involved yet. Every possible sign says no. The addition of a former NSA director to OpenAI’s board may signal the start of government involvement. But the board position is not actually a good spot to keep tabs on what’s happending, let alone direct it (according to the breakdown of the last board incident). So I’d guess that’s the first involvement. But you’re correct that we can’t know.
It’s entirely clear from the Chinese government’s actions and investments that they regard developing the capacity to make better GPUs for AI-trainig/inference purposes as a high priority. That doesn’t make it clear that they’re yet thinking seriously about AGI or ASI.
I don’t think that’s clear at all. What investments have been made into GPUs specifically have been fairly minor, discussion at the state level has been general and as focused on other kinds of chips (eg. avoiding the Russian shortages) in order to gain general economic & military resilience to Taiwanese sanctions & ensure high tempo high-tech warfare, with chips being but one of many advanced technologies that Xi has designated as priorities (which means they’re not really priorities) and the US GPU embargo has been as focused on sabotaging weapons development like hypersonic missiles as it is on AI (you can do other things with supercomputers, you know, and historically, that’s what they have been doing).
For starters it could be used as a diplomatic tool with tremendous bargin power as well as a deterrent to anyone that wanted to challenge US post war dominance in all fields.
Now imagine what a machine that is better in solving any problem in all of science than all the smartest people and scientists in world. Would not this machine give the owners EXTREME advantages in all things related to government/military/intelligence?!
The USA was the dominant industrial power in the post-war world, was this obvious and massive advantage ‘extremely’ enhanced by its’ possession of nuclear weapons? As a reminder, these weapons were not decisive (or even useful) in any of the wars the USA actually fought, the USA has been repeatedly and continuously challenged by non-nuclear regional powers.
Sure, AI might provide an extreme advantage, but I’m not clear on why nuclear weapons do.
No one ever seriously considered invading the US, since 1945. The Viet Cong merely succeeded in making the Americans leave, once the cost for them of continuing the war exceeded the loss of face from losing it. Likewise for the Afghans defeating the Russians.
However, I agree, nuclear weapons are in some sense a defensive technology, not an offensive one: the consequences (geopolitical and environmental) of using one are so bad that no one since WW2 has been willing to use one as part of a war of conquest, even when nuclear powers were fighting non-nuclear powers.
One strongly suspects that the same will not be true of ASI, and that it will unlock many technologies, offensive, defensive, and perhaps also persuasive, probably including some much more subtle than nuclear weapons (which are monumentally unsubtle).
It makes perfect sense that it will turn into a Manhattan project, and it probably (p>0.999999...) already has. The idea that the government, military, and intelligence agencies have not yet received the memo about AI/AGI/ASI is beyond naive.
Just like the extreme advantages of being the first to develop a nuclear bomb, being the first to achieve AGI might carry the same EXTREME advantages.
We’re pretty sure it hasn’t already become a manhattan project because top-tier researchers haven’t visibly left the public sphere. Also, the government really seems quite clueless about this. Congressional hearing have the appearance of everyone grappling with these ideas for the first time, and getting a lot of it quite wrong.
Well, how many of in congress and the senate heard about the Manhattan project?
“Keeping 120,000 people quiet would be impossible; therefore only a small privileged cadre of inner scientists and officials knew about the atomic bomb’s development. In fact, Vice-President Truman had never heard of the Manhattan Project until he became President Truman.”
https://www.ushistory.org/us/51f.asp
When it comes to the scientists, we have no idea if the work they do in “private” companies is a part of a bigger government led effort. Which would be the most efficient way I suppose.
I don’t really understand why some people seem to get so upset about the idea that the government/military is involved in developing cutting edge technology. Like AI is some thing that governments/militaries are not aloud to touch? The military industrial complex has been and will always be involved in this kind of endeavors.
These are good points. I fully agree that the military will be involved. I think it’s almost inevitable that the government and national security apparatus will see the potential before AGI is smart enough to totally outmaneuver their attempts to take control. I still don’t think they are very involved yet. Every possible sign says no. The addition of a former NSA director to OpenAI’s board may signal the start of government involvement. But the board position is not actually a good spot to keep tabs on what’s happending, let alone direct it (according to the breakdown of the last board incident). So I’d guess that’s the first involvement. But you’re correct that we can’t know.
It’s entirely clear from the Chinese government’s actions and investments that they regard developing the capacity to make better GPUs for AI-trainig/inference purposes as a high priority. That doesn’t make it clear that they’re yet thinking seriously about AGI or ASI.
I don’t think that’s clear at all. What investments have been made into GPUs specifically have been fairly minor, discussion at the state level has been general and as focused on other kinds of chips (eg. avoiding the Russian shortages) in order to gain general economic & military resilience to Taiwanese sanctions & ensure high tempo high-tech warfare, with chips being but one of many advanced technologies that Xi has designated as priorities (which means they’re not really priorities) and the US GPU embargo has been as focused on sabotaging weapons development like hypersonic missiles as it is on AI (you can do other things with supercomputers, you know, and historically, that’s what they have been doing).
What extreme advantages were those? What nuclear age conquests are comparable to the era immediately before?
For starters it could be used as a diplomatic tool with tremendous bargin power as well as a deterrent to anyone that wanted to challenge US post war dominance in all fields.
Now imagine what a machine that is better in solving any problem in all of science than all the smartest people and scientists in world. Would not this machine give the owners EXTREME advantages in all things related to government/military/intelligence?!
States that have nuclear weapons are generally less able to successfully make compellent threats than states that do not. Citation: https://uva.theopenscholar.com/todd-sechser/publications/militarized-compellent-threats-1918%E2%80%932001
The USA was the dominant industrial power in the post-war world, was this obvious and massive advantage ‘extremely’ enhanced by its’ possession of nuclear weapons? As a reminder, these weapons were not decisive (or even useful) in any of the wars the USA actually fought, the USA has been repeatedly and continuously challenged by non-nuclear regional powers.
Sure, AI might provide an extreme advantage, but I’m not clear on why nuclear weapons do.
No one ever seriously considered invading the US, since 1945. The Viet Cong merely succeeded in making the Americans leave, once the cost for them of continuing the war exceeded the loss of face from losing it. Likewise for the Afghans defeating the Russians.
However, I agree, nuclear weapons are in some sense a defensive technology, not an offensive one: the consequences (geopolitical and environmental) of using one are so bad that no one since WW2 has been willing to use one as part of a war of conquest, even when nuclear powers were fighting non-nuclear powers.
One strongly suspects that the same will not be true of ASI, and that it will unlock many technologies, offensive, defensive, and perhaps also persuasive, probably including some much more subtle than nuclear weapons (which are monumentally unsubtle).