These are good points. I fully agree that the military will be involved. I think it’s almost inevitable that the government and national security apparatus will see the potential before AGI is smart enough to totally outmaneuver their attempts to take control. I still don’t think they are very involved yet. Every possible sign says no. The addition of a former NSA director to OpenAI’s board may signal the start of government involvement. But the board position is not actually a good spot to keep tabs on what’s happending, let alone direct it (according to the breakdown of the last board incident). So I’d guess that’s the first involvement. But you’re correct that we can’t know.
It’s entirely clear from the Chinese government’s actions and investments that they regard developing the capacity to make better GPUs for AI-trainig/inference purposes as a high priority. That doesn’t make it clear that they’re yet thinking seriously about AGI or ASI.
I don’t think that’s clear at all. What investments have been made into GPUs specifically have been fairly minor, discussion at the state level has been general and as focused on other kinds of chips (eg. avoiding the Russian shortages) in order to gain general economic & military resilience to Taiwanese sanctions & ensure high tempo high-tech warfare, with chips being but one of many advanced technologies that Xi has designated as priorities (which means they’re not really priorities) and the US GPU embargo has been as focused on sabotaging weapons development like hypersonic missiles as it is on AI (you can do other things with supercomputers, you know, and historically, that’s what they have been doing).
These are good points. I fully agree that the military will be involved. I think it’s almost inevitable that the government and national security apparatus will see the potential before AGI is smart enough to totally outmaneuver their attempts to take control. I still don’t think they are very involved yet. Every possible sign says no. The addition of a former NSA director to OpenAI’s board may signal the start of government involvement. But the board position is not actually a good spot to keep tabs on what’s happending, let alone direct it (according to the breakdown of the last board incident). So I’d guess that’s the first involvement. But you’re correct that we can’t know.
It’s entirely clear from the Chinese government’s actions and investments that they regard developing the capacity to make better GPUs for AI-trainig/inference purposes as a high priority. That doesn’t make it clear that they’re yet thinking seriously about AGI or ASI.
I don’t think that’s clear at all. What investments have been made into GPUs specifically have been fairly minor, discussion at the state level has been general and as focused on other kinds of chips (eg. avoiding the Russian shortages) in order to gain general economic & military resilience to Taiwanese sanctions & ensure high tempo high-tech warfare, with chips being but one of many advanced technologies that Xi has designated as priorities (which means they’re not really priorities) and the US GPU embargo has been as focused on sabotaging weapons development like hypersonic missiles as it is on AI (you can do other things with supercomputers, you know, and historically, that’s what they have been doing).