You’re assuming the two alternatives are that everything she’s said is true and accurate, or else nothing is. It does not require psychosis to make wrong interpretations or to have mild paranoia. It merely requires not being a dedicated rationalist, and/or having a hard life. I’m pretty sure that being abused would help cause paranoia, helping her to get some stuff wrong.
Unfortunately, it’s going to be impossible to disentangle this without more specific evidence. Psychology is complicated. Both real recovered memories and fabricated memories seem to be common.
You didn’t bother estimating the base rate of sexual abuse by siblings. While that’s very hard to figure out, it’s very likely in the same neighborhood as your 1-3% psychosis. And it’s even harder to study or estimate. So this isn’t going to help much in resolving the issue.
I’m disappointed you didn’t engage with Seth’s claim that you’re assuming all the claims made are either collectively true or collectively false.
Is it true that someone with psychosis (assuming your judgement is correct) making an allegation of sexual abuse is more likely to be lying/mistaken than not?
I.e someone with psychosis making a claim like the above is less likely than someone without psychosis to be accurately interpreting reality, but is their claim more likely to be false than not? Your argument leans heavily on her having psychosis. Do people with psychosis make more false allegations of sexual assault that true allegations?
Breiding et al., 2014 estimates that around 19.3% of women in the US have been sexually assaulted. Assuming the rate is similar for people with psychosis, more than 1 in 5 women with psychosis would need to make false allegations for the base assumption to be “person has psychosis therefore their sexual assault claim is more likely false than true”. On reflection this part wasn’t a good point.
I have done a check of about half an hour on all kinds of material published by herself and in conclusion I believe with a high degree of certainty that she says a lot of largely untrue things. Whether that’s due to utter brain malfunction or lying I cannot say.
The wholesale dismissal of her reality claims is a mistake. Comorbidities of abuse as well as having to perform the family deceit of not acknowledging it definitionaly decenter the abused as a reference point on reality. Even if her claims are proximally or partially true their complete invalidation is foolish.
You’re assuming the two alternatives are that everything she’s said is true and accurate, or else nothing is. It does not require psychosis to make wrong interpretations or to have mild paranoia. It merely requires not being a dedicated rationalist, and/or having a hard life. I’m pretty sure that being abused would help cause paranoia, helping her to get some stuff wrong.
Unfortunately, it’s going to be impossible to disentangle this without more specific evidence. Psychology is complicated. Both real recovered memories and fabricated memories seem to be common.
You didn’t bother estimating the base rate of sexual abuse by siblings. While that’s very hard to figure out, it’s very likely in the same neighborhood as your 1-3% psychosis. And it’s even harder to study or estimate. So this isn’t going to help much in resolving the issue.
I disagree, that seems extraordinarily high to me.
I’m disappointed you didn’t engage with Seth’s claim that you’re assuming all the claims made are either collectively true or collectively false.
Is it true that someone with psychosis (assuming your judgement is correct) making an allegation of sexual abuse is more likely to be lying/mistaken than not?
I.e someone with psychosis making a claim like the above is less likely than someone without psychosis to be accurately interpreting reality, but is their claim more likely to be false than not? Your argument leans heavily on her having psychosis. Do people with psychosis make more false allegations of sexual assault that true allegations?
Breiding et al., 2014 estimates that around 19.3% of women in the US have been sexually assaulted. Assuming the rate is similar for people with psychosis, more than 1 in 5 women with psychosis would need to make false allegations for the base assumption to be “person has psychosis therefore their sexual assault claim is more likely false than true”.On reflection this part wasn’t a good point.I have done a check of about half an hour on all kinds of material published by herself and in conclusion I believe with a high degree of certainty that she says a lot of largely untrue things. Whether that’s due to utter brain malfunction or lying I cannot say.
The wholesale dismissal of her reality claims is a mistake. Comorbidities of abuse as well as having to perform the family deceit of not acknowledging it definitionaly decenter the abused as a reference point on reality. Even if her claims are proximally or partially true their complete invalidation is foolish.