It’s true that a hundred years ago, women making such allegations were dismissid as being psychotic. This doesn’t mean that these dissmissed women were indeed psychotic and/or wrong in their allegitions. Pre-me-too perception of the world is at least not necessarily more accurate.
If anything, happening of Me-Too movement is an evidence in favor of base rates of sexual assault being highter. You can’t use it existence to lower the probability estimate of this particular allegation being true, without contradicting conservation of expected evidence.
Similarly, with mental health issues. They can be downstream of sexual abuse or they can lead to falsly believing that you were abused. Priviledging one hypothesis over the other requires some kind of evidence. What are the rates of abused person developping mental health issues, similar to what can be observed of Annie Altman? What are the rates of people with similar to Annie Altman issues having delusions about sexual assault?
The base rate for psychosis is about 1-3% and she’s at the most common age for it too.
This 1-3% is much higher than the probability that the abuse happened, and the total internet shadowbanning happened, that multiple family members are conspiring against her, and the part where she was illegally written out of the will happened, etc.
You are comparing wrong numbers. As I’ve already said what we need to compare is the rate of this kind of mental health symptoms among people who were not sexually abused in their childhood and then developped delusions about sexual assualt with the probability of people being sexually abused in their childhood and then developping this kind of simptoms. This will give us a prior to distinguish between two hypothesis.
All the other complications like shadowbanning, family members conspiring, being written out of the will, etc. are not relevant to the main issue. A scenario where a girl was sexually abused as by her brothers, which resulted in her devolopping mental health issues, which lead her to inaccurately believe that she is shadowbanned in the internet isn’t absolving for the brothers. Of course if the other allegations are also true/partially true it makes the situation even more severe. But they have to be examined on their own and not dissmissed all together.
It’s true that a hundred years ago, women making such allegations were dismissid as being psychotic. This doesn’t mean that these dissmissed women were indeed psychotic and/or wrong in their allegitions. Pre-me-too perception of the world is at least not necessarily more accurate.
If anything, happening of Me-Too movement is an evidence in favor of base rates of sexual assault being highter. You can’t use it existence to lower the probability estimate of this particular allegation being true, without contradicting conservation of expected evidence.
Similarly, with mental health issues. They can be downstream of sexual abuse or they can lead to falsly believing that you were abused. Priviledging one hypothesis over the other requires some kind of evidence. What are the rates of abused person developping mental health issues, similar to what can be observed of Annie Altman? What are the rates of people with similar to Annie Altman issues having delusions about sexual assault?
You are comparing wrong numbers. As I’ve already said what we need to compare is the rate of this kind of mental health symptoms among people who were not sexually abused in their childhood and then developped delusions about sexual assualt with the probability of people being sexually abused in their childhood and then developping this kind of simptoms. This will give us a prior to distinguish between two hypothesis.
All the other complications like shadowbanning, family members conspiring, being written out of the will, etc. are not relevant to the main issue. A scenario where a girl was sexually abused as by her brothers, which resulted in her devolopping mental health issues, which lead her to inaccurately believe that she is shadowbanned in the internet isn’t absolving for the brothers. Of course if the other allegations are also true/partially true it makes the situation even more severe. But they have to be examined on their own and not dissmissed all together.