Yes, it’s possible too. I used “causing” referring to a direct link: some predictions are of the form “event X will happen before date D”, and you lose points if you fail to revise your estimates as D draws nearer.
Apparently many people weren’t aware of this aspect—they took a “fire and forget” approach to prediction. (That is in itself an interesting lesson.) That was before the leaderboard was set up.
Hmm, correlation v. causation maybe? It is possible that some people were doing poorly and so started participating less?
Yes, it’s possible too. I used “causing” referring to a direct link: some predictions are of the form “event X will happen before date D”, and you lose points if you fail to revise your estimates as D draws nearer.
Apparently many people weren’t aware of this aspect—they took a “fire and forget” approach to prediction. (That is in itself an interesting lesson.) That was before the leaderboard was set up.