The first and third comments are correct. I made some errors in first typing it up that shouldn’t take away from the argument that are now fixed. The third comment is an actual mistake that has also been fixed.
Over the 0.75 probability space where C is true (second statement), A is only true in half that space (third statement).
This is wrong. P(C|A) is read as C given A, which is the chance of C, given that A is true. You’re mixing it up with P(A|C). However, if you switch A and C in your paragraph, it becomes a valid critique, which I’ve fixed, substituting the correct values in. Thanks. (Did I mess anything else up?)
I’m starting to appreciate mathematicians now :)
You need to escape your * symbols so they output correctly.
You’re mixing it up with P(A|C). However, if you switch A and C in your paragraph, it becomes a valid critique, which I’ve fixed, substituting the correct values in. Thanks.
You’re right, I had that backwards.
(Did I mess anything else up?)
Hmmm....
P(F)=.20
P(F)= P(D)*.95+P(C)*.001=0.119125
You have two different values for P(F). Similarly, the value P(E)=0.70 does not match up with P(C), P(D) and the following:
P(memory of X | X happened yesterday)=.95
P(memory of X | X didn’t happen yesterday)=.001
None of which is going to affect your point, which seems to come down to the claim that there exist possible events A, B, C, D, E and F such that P(A|C) = 1.
The first and third comments are correct. I made some errors in first typing it up that shouldn’t take away from the argument that are now fixed. The third comment is an actual mistake that has also been fixed.
This is wrong. P(C|A) is read as C given A, which is the chance of C, given that A is true. You’re mixing it up with P(A|C). However, if you switch A and C in your paragraph, it becomes a valid critique, which I’ve fixed, substituting the correct values in. Thanks. (Did I mess anything else up?)
I’m starting to appreciate mathematicians now :)
You need to escape your * symbols so they output correctly.
You’re right, I had that backwards.
Hmmm....
You have two different values for P(F). Similarly, the value P(E)=0.70 does not match up with P(C), P(D) and the following:
None of which is going to affect your point, which seems to come down to the claim that there exist possible events A, B, C, D, E and F such that P(A|C) = 1.