You’re mixing it up with P(A|C). However, if you switch A and C in your paragraph, it becomes a valid critique, which I’ve fixed, substituting the correct values in. Thanks.
You’re right, I had that backwards.
(Did I mess anything else up?)
Hmmm....
P(F)=.20
P(F)= P(D)*.95+P(C)*.001=0.119125
You have two different values for P(F). Similarly, the value P(E)=0.70 does not match up with P(C), P(D) and the following:
P(memory of X | X happened yesterday)=.95
P(memory of X | X didn’t happen yesterday)=.001
None of which is going to affect your point, which seems to come down to the claim that there exist possible events A, B, C, D, E and F such that P(A|C) = 1.
You’re right, I had that backwards.
Hmmm....
You have two different values for P(F). Similarly, the value P(E)=0.70 does not match up with P(C), P(D) and the following:
None of which is going to affect your point, which seems to come down to the claim that there exist possible events A, B, C, D, E and F such that P(A|C) = 1.