This is an estimated 37% increase in infectiousness. Compared to 50%, that’s much much better. The difference is enough to give us a puncher’s chance of things not being so bad, both buying us time and reducing how bad it is when the time comes.
Unfortunately, this is an incorrect conclusion from the data referenced in the tweet. It seems the 37% number was obtained by dividing 1.07 by 0.78, which rounds to 1.37. However, while 1.07 is the R of the B.1.1.7 variant, the 0.78 is not the R of the other variants, but the overall R (it says so right in the tweet!), which includes B.1.1.7. As B.1.1.7 is a sizable portion of total cases, it already skews overall R upwards quite a bit, and this means that the 37% number is an underestimation.
The latest conclusion from the SSI that I am aware of is, as is also mentioned in the article linked in the post, that B.1.1.7 is 55% more infectious (using the Danish generation time estimate of 4.7 days).
It does look like you are correct. My math from that still had it in the low-mid 40s rather than 55%, but that depends on details. If it’s 55%, as I’ve noted before, that makes it too fast for us to stop in time unless things change fast.
Unfortunately, this is an incorrect conclusion from the data referenced in the tweet. It seems the 37% number was obtained by dividing 1.07 by 0.78, which rounds to 1.37. However, while 1.07 is the R of the B.1.1.7 variant, the 0.78 is not the R of the other variants, but the overall R (it says so right in the tweet!), which includes B.1.1.7. As B.1.1.7 is a sizable portion of total cases, it already skews overall R upwards quite a bit, and this means that the 37% number is an underestimation.
The latest conclusion from the SSI that I am aware of is, as is also mentioned in the article linked in the post, that B.1.1.7 is 55% more infectious (using the Danish generation time estimate of 4.7 days).
It does look like you are correct. My math from that still had it in the low-mid 40s rather than 55%, but that depends on details. If it’s 55%, as I’ve noted before, that makes it too fast for us to stop in time unless things change fast.
Good point. Do you know what portion of cases are B.1.1.7 in Denmark?
20.3% of the analysed cases in week 4 were B.1.1.7, and current numbers for week 5 show 28.5%. The pdf linked from https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/opgoerelse-over-udvalgte-af-sars-cov-2-virusvarianter is currently updated daily.