I used to get depressed about genetic determinism. It’s a two-sentence thought that eliminates your perceived capacity for change.
However, while some predictive models can be built, and many things do revert to the mean – those are tendencies. You only get a pattern from a behavior that repeats. Some things don’t. If you’re looking for an overarching cause of life-outcomes, you necessarily cancel out individual variation.
No study on demographics that includes a section called “the one-off thing that happened to one guy once in defiance of what usually happens”.
Those models don’t know what you want. They can’t account for yourdecision to find it.
Most importantly, they can’t account for a systematic effort to find it.
I used to get depressed about genetic determinism. It’s a two-sentence thought that eliminates your perceived capacity for change.
However, while some predictive models can be built, and many things do revert to the mean – those are tendencies. You only get a pattern from a behavior that repeats. Some things don’t. If you’re looking for an overarching cause of life-outcomes, you necessarily cancel out individual variation.
No study on demographics that includes a section called “the one-off thing that happened to one guy once in defiance of what usually happens”.
Those models don’t know what you want. They can’t account for your decision to find it.
Most importantly, they can’t account for a systematic effort to find it.