I actually don’t necessarily disagree with this. (I’m generally pretty confused about how to think about pivotal acts, and AI strategy generally)
But, insofar as one doesn’t think they should use the pivotal-act frame, I think the solution is to just not use it, rather than water-down the word.
(I think an important thing that the pivotal act frame is getting at is that somehow you actually need to exist the Acute Risk Period. There are a lot of vague plans that sounds sorta helpful but don’t actually add up to “we have left the acute risk period”, and many of those vague plans won’t work even if you stack them all up together. I think it is plausible you don’t need the all-or-nothing implication of the Pivotal frame, but there is something important about plans that could possibly work, or be part of a constellation of plans that could possibly-work-together.)
To be clear— I don’t disagree with the original post—just wanted to suggest not using the term as an option - I do agree there is value in asking, in my paraphrase, “what’s the implied safe end here” - I mostly don’t agree with assumption behind the term that many small changes generally don’t add up
I actually don’t necessarily disagree with this. (I’m generally pretty confused about how to think about pivotal acts, and AI strategy generally)
But, insofar as one doesn’t think they should use the pivotal-act frame, I think the solution is to just not use it, rather than water-down the word.
(I think an important thing that the pivotal act frame is getting at is that somehow you actually need to exist the Acute Risk Period. There are a lot of vague plans that sounds sorta helpful but don’t actually add up to “we have left the acute risk period”, and many of those vague plans won’t work even if you stack them all up together. I think it is plausible you don’t need the all-or-nothing implication of the Pivotal frame, but there is something important about plans that could possibly work, or be part of a constellation of plans that could possibly-work-together.)
To be clear—
I don’t disagree with the original post—just wanted to suggest not using the term as an option
- I do agree there is value in asking, in my paraphrase, “what’s the implied safe end here”
- I mostly don’t agree with assumption behind the term that many small changes generally don’t add up