I don’t think “too much Covid content” is the major problem here. Rather, the major problem with this essay is that it mostly states Zvi’s updates, without sharing the data and reasoning that led him to make those updates. It’s not going to convince anyone who doesn’t already trust Zvi.
This is perhaps an acceptable trade-off if people have to move fast and make decisions without being able to build their own models. But it’s an emergency measure that’s very costly long-term.
And for the most important decisions, it is especially important that the people who make them build their own models of the situation.
(For the record: I think Zvi’s thinking on Covid is mostly extremely sensible, and I disagree with Sherrinford’s comment below. So this is not about whether he’s right or not. I’d bet he is, on average.)
I think it’s relevant that this isn’t Zvi’s first COVID-19 post on LW; it’s his seventeenth, and he’s been showing his work to an exceptional degree.
Since some important stuff isn’t hyperlinked in the post itself, putting it all in a sequence (or the mods just picking out a few of the relevant past discussions of these topics and linking them in a pinned comment) might be helpful.
Indeed, the goal of this post is that long post is long in order to cover all the ground and I’m explicit that I’m not showing my work here. I tried to put up hyperlinks to the previous posts in the relevant places, where work is shown, but that’s definitely not covering all bases.
I’m not up for extensive additional hyperlinking work at this time, but if others have suggestions I will likely accept them.
I don’t think “too much Covid content” is the major problem here. Rather, the major problem with this essay is that it mostly states Zvi’s updates, without sharing the data and reasoning that led him to make those updates. It’s not going to convince anyone who doesn’t already trust Zvi.
This is perhaps an acceptable trade-off if people have to move fast and make decisions without being able to build their own models. But it’s an emergency measure that’s very costly long-term.
And for the most important decisions, it is especially important that the people who make them build their own models of the situation.
(For the record: I think Zvi’s thinking on Covid is mostly extremely sensible, and I disagree with Sherrinford’s comment below. So this is not about whether he’s right or not. I’d bet he is, on average.)
I think it’s relevant that this isn’t Zvi’s first COVID-19 post on LW; it’s his seventeenth, and he’s been showing his work to an exceptional degree.
Since some important stuff isn’t hyperlinked in the post itself, putting it all in a sequence (or the mods just picking out a few of the relevant past discussions of these topics and linking them in a pinned comment) might be helpful.
Indeed, the goal of this post is that long post is long in order to cover all the ground and I’m explicit that I’m not showing my work here. I tried to put up hyperlinks to the previous posts in the relevant places, where work is shown, but that’s definitely not covering all bases.
I’m not up for extensive additional hyperlinking work at this time, but if others have suggestions I will likely accept them.