1. Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15: 60%
I sold to 40%.
Since this section is called “Prediction Updates”, I initially thought you were saying you’d predicted 60% on May 1, and are now predicting 40%. You may want to clarify that 60% was Scott’s April 29 prediction, and 40% was your May 1 prediction.
Added the following to original, mods please reimport or insert it directly at top of section: Pattern is that the percentages in the statements are Scott Alexander’s original predictions. When I say I bought, sold or held, that’s what I did in the linked-to post.
Zvi’s crossposts are a bit messy to edit (html and other things) so for Zvi we said we would make fixes to his posts when he makes updates, to reduce the cost on him for cross-posting (having to deal with two editors, especially when the LW one is messy).
Since this section is called “Prediction Updates”, I initially thought you were saying you’d predicted 60% on May 1, and are now predicting 40%. You may want to clarify that 60% was Scott’s April 29 prediction, and 40% was your May 1 prediction.
Yeah, I can see how that is confusing. Will edit.
Added the following to original, mods please reimport or insert it directly at top of section: Pattern is that the percentages in the statements are Scott Alexander’s original predictions. When I say I bought, sold or held, that’s what I did in the linked-to post.
You’re not able to directly edit it yourself?
Zvi’s crossposts are a bit messy to edit (html and other things) so for Zvi we said we would make fixes to his posts when he makes updates, to reduce the cost on him for cross-posting (having to deal with two editors, especially when the LW one is messy).
(I have now made the edit to the post above.)