LessWrong team does indeed disagree on all sorts of things. But… once you actually operationalize things, bets often turn out to be pretty boring. (The heated disagreement tends to come more from how people are emotionally relating to something).
We did recently have a Prediction Day where we made lots of predictions about various LessWrong outcomes (i.e. how many people would purchase the upcoming book, how many people would participate in the 2019 Review, etc).
There were disagreements, but few disagreements where people had strong enough opinions that survived operationalization to make bets. But, I do think $100 Reserve Fractional Kelly Betting would be appropriate.
LessWrong team does indeed disagree on all sorts of things. But… once you actually operationalize things, bets often turn out to be pretty boring. (The heated disagreement tends to come more from how people are emotionally relating to something).
We did recently have a Prediction Day where we made lots of predictions about various LessWrong outcomes (i.e. how many people would purchase the upcoming book, how many people would participate in the 2019 Review, etc).
There were disagreements, but few disagreements where people had strong enough opinions that survived operationalization to make bets. But, I do think $100 Reserve Fractional Kelly Betting would be appropriate.