...I just don’t find myself having interesting enough beliefs that a) I’m confident in and b) other people are confident in-other-directions in.
I could be wrong, but this sounds similar to the way nobody seems to have any disagreements when CFAR tries to get them to practice Double Crux, but then it’s lunch time and people get into all kinds of arguments while eating.
Surely you have opinions about, EG, the design of LW, which come up during LW meetings? Some of these can be turned into bets about user behavior or such.
I myself don’t bet much, but every so often there will be a big discussion at MIRI about some mathematical question or some silly Fermi-estimation example, and people will place bets. People might hypothetically place (fractional?) Kelly bets in these situations. Maybe I’ll try it.
LessWrong team does indeed disagree on all sorts of things. But… once you actually operationalize things, bets often turn out to be pretty boring. (The heated disagreement tends to come more from how people are emotionally relating to something).
We did recently have a Prediction Day where we made lots of predictions about various LessWrong outcomes (i.e. how many people would purchase the upcoming book, how many people would participate in the 2019 Review, etc).
There were disagreements, but few disagreements where people had strong enough opinions that survived operationalization to make bets. But, I do think $100 Reserve Fractional Kelly Betting would be appropriate.
I could be wrong, but this sounds similar to the way nobody seems to have any disagreements when CFAR tries to get them to practice Double Crux, but then it’s lunch time and people get into all kinds of arguments while eating.
Surely you have opinions about, EG, the design of LW, which come up during LW meetings? Some of these can be turned into bets about user behavior or such.
I myself don’t bet much, but every so often there will be a big discussion at MIRI about some mathematical question or some silly Fermi-estimation example, and people will place bets. People might hypothetically place (fractional?) Kelly bets in these situations. Maybe I’ll try it.
LessWrong team does indeed disagree on all sorts of things. But… once you actually operationalize things, bets often turn out to be pretty boring. (The heated disagreement tends to come more from how people are emotionally relating to something).
We did recently have a Prediction Day where we made lots of predictions about various LessWrong outcomes (i.e. how many people would purchase the upcoming book, how many people would participate in the 2019 Review, etc).
There were disagreements, but few disagreements where people had strong enough opinions that survived operationalization to make bets. But, I do think $100 Reserve Fractional Kelly Betting would be appropriate.