Thank for explaining your position which is interesting and consistent.
I can suggest that the connection between WIH and wet market can be explained by the idea that some criminals sold lab animals from WIH on the wet market, e.g. bats.
Obviously this looks like ad hoc theory. But the travel of the virus to the market from the Laos caves also seems to be tricky and may include some steps like intermediate carrier. Both look equally unlikely, one of the happened.
So my idea is to ignore all the details and small theories; instead just updated on the distances to two possible origins points: 8 miles and 900 miles. This is 100 times difference and if we count the areas—it is 10000 times difference. In last case we can make so powerful update in the direction of WIH as source, that it overrides all other evidence.
Thank for explaining your position which is interesting and consistent.
I can suggest that the connection between WIH and wet market can be explained by the idea that some criminals sold lab animals from WIH on the wet market, e.g. bats.
Obviously this looks like ad hoc theory. But the travel of the virus to the market from the Laos caves also seems to be tricky and may include some steps like intermediate carrier. Both look equally unlikely, one of the happened.
So my idea is to ignore all the details and small theories; instead just updated on the distances to two possible origins points: 8 miles and 900 miles. This is 100 times difference and if we count the areas—it is 10000 times difference. In last case we can make so powerful update in the direction of WIH as source, that it overrides all other evidence.
They’re not equally unlikely. You haven’t provided any actual evidence for this claim.
Also, why on Earth would we just take the ratio of distances or areas as the probability factor? That’s not how pandemics work.