Regardless, it is still the case that Anthropic has already committed to a scaling pause under certain circumstances.
I disagree that this is an accurate summary, or like, it’s only barely denotatively true but not connotatively.
I do think it’s probably best to let this discussion rest, not because it’s not important, but because I do think actually resolving this kind of semantic dispute in public comments like this is really hard, and I think it’s unlikely either of us will change their mind here, and we’ve both made our points. I appreciate you responding to my comments.
I think that there’s a reasonable chance that the current security commitments will lead Anthropic to pause scaling (though I don’t know whether Anthropic would announce publicly if they paused internally). Maybe a Manifold market on this would be a good idea.
Looks good—the only thing I would change is that I think this should probably resolve in the negative only once Anthropic has reached ASL-4, since only then will it be clear whether at any point there was a security-related pause during ASL-3.
I disagree that this is an accurate summary, or like, it’s only barely denotatively true but not connotatively.
I do think it’s probably best to let this discussion rest, not because it’s not important, but because I do think actually resolving this kind of semantic dispute in public comments like this is really hard, and I think it’s unlikely either of us will change their mind here, and we’ve both made our points. I appreciate you responding to my comments.
I think that there’s a reasonable chance that the current security commitments will lead Anthropic to pause scaling (though I don’t know whether Anthropic would announce publicly if they paused internally). Maybe a Manifold market on this would be a good idea.
That seems cool! I made a market here:
Feel free to suggest edits about the operationalization or other things before people start trading.
Looks good—the only thing I would change is that I think this should probably resolve in the negative only once Anthropic has reached ASL-4, since only then will it be clear whether at any point there was a security-related pause during ASL-3.
That seems reasonable. Edited the description (I can’t change when trading on the market closes, but I think that should be fine).