I think that there’s a reasonable chance that the current security commitments will lead Anthropic to pause scaling (though I don’t know whether Anthropic would announce publicly if they paused internally). Maybe a Manifold market on this would be a good idea.
Looks good—the only thing I would change is that I think this should probably resolve in the negative only once Anthropic has reached ASL-4, since only then will it be clear whether at any point there was a security-related pause during ASL-3.
I think that there’s a reasonable chance that the current security commitments will lead Anthropic to pause scaling (though I don’t know whether Anthropic would announce publicly if they paused internally). Maybe a Manifold market on this would be a good idea.
That seems cool! I made a market here:
Feel free to suggest edits about the operationalization or other things before people start trading.
Looks good—the only thing I would change is that I think this should probably resolve in the negative only once Anthropic has reached ASL-4, since only then will it be clear whether at any point there was a security-related pause during ASL-3.
That seems reasonable. Edited the description (I can’t change when trading on the market closes, but I think that should be fine).