If I had to make a wild guess, I might guess that 75% of people in the modern world would say they would rather have been a king in 4000BC. (More, if you exclude the people who say they would rather have been a farmer in 4000BC than a king in 4000BC.) My 50% confidence interval is 25%-95%. Anybody want to do a survey?
I would also guess the number who say they would rather be a king is smaller than the number of people who would actually prefer being a king, because people overestimate how much they would miss modern conveniences, and because saying you’d like to be king is frowned on nowadays.
It’s interesting to look at what traits people assume they’d carry into the past. I suspect that gender is one of them. I don’t have a strong feeling for what proportion would like to be a queen in the ancient world.
In discussions I’ve seen about going back, a fair number say they’d be dead because of the lack of modern medicine.
Correct me if I’m wrong—I’m pretty new to this game. Does this entail that you’d assign about a 50% probability that either 0%-25% or 95%+ of the people would say that?
So, based on those numbers, you think it’s more likely that either 0%-25% or 95%+ of the people would say that, than that 35%-85% would say that? (assuming nonzero probability to 25%-35% or 85%-95%)
Based on those number, yes. But I didn’t consider both sides like that. I may have erred in overcompensating for the tendency of people to make too-small confidence intervals.
If I had to make a wild guess, I might guess that 75% of people in the modern world would say they would rather have been a king in 4000BC.
I considered well-off middle-class people in the modern world, which isn’t such a big portion of population of the modern world. Of course, for a person in poverty, becoming a king of the savages is probably an improvement. (Very likely, not what you meant.)
I would also guess the number who say they would rather be a king is smaller than the number of people who would actually prefer being a king, because people overestimate how much they would miss modern conveniences, and because saying you’d like to be king is frowned on nowadays.
I agree that these factors are present, but am not sure that they outweigh the factors prompting people to bias their beliefs in the opposite direction (or even that these are the main factors in the direction you indicate).
If I had to make a wild guess, I might guess that 75% of people in the modern world would say they would rather have been a king in 4000BC. (More, if you exclude the people who say they would rather have been a farmer in 4000BC than a king in 4000BC.) My 50% confidence interval is 25%-95%. Anybody want to do a survey?
I would also guess the number who say they would rather be a king is smaller than the number of people who would actually prefer being a king, because people overestimate how much they would miss modern conveniences, and because saying you’d like to be king is frowned on nowadays.
It’s interesting to look at what traits people assume they’d carry into the past. I suspect that gender is one of them. I don’t have a strong feeling for what proportion would like to be a queen in the ancient world.
In discussions I’ve seen about going back, a fair number say they’d be dead because of the lack of modern medicine.
About half on the most recent such discussion I recall reading.
Correct me if I’m wrong—I’m pretty new to this game. Does this entail that you’d assign about a 50% probability that either 0%-25% or 95%+ of the people would say that?
That’s an implication, yes.
So, based on those numbers, you think it’s more likely that either 0%-25% or 95%+ of the people would say that, than that 35%-85% would say that? (assuming nonzero probability to 25%-35% or 85%-95%)
Based on those number, yes. But I didn’t consider both sides like that. I may have erred in overcompensating for the tendency of people to make too-small confidence intervals.
Ah, good. I was afraid I’d misunderstood.
I considered well-off middle-class people in the modern world, which isn’t such a big portion of population of the modern world. Of course, for a person in poverty, becoming a king of the savages is probably an improvement. (Very likely, not what you meant.)
I agree that these factors are present, but am not sure that they outweigh the factors prompting people to bias their beliefs in the opposite direction (or even that these are the main factors in the direction you indicate).