The if long COVID usually clears up after eight weeks, that would definitely weaken my point (which would be good news!) I haven’t decided if it would change my overall stance on masking though
Even in a scenario where all unvaccinated people were infected with covid, I would expect none of the Georgetown undergraduates to die from covid or get covid longer than 12 weeks.
Here’s my fermi analysis:
in your 20s, covid CFR is .0001, compared to .01 for population as a whole.
covid longer than 12 weeks is .03 for covid population as a whole.
assume really long covid scales similarly to death and hospitalization
mRNA reduces these both by .9.
That gives us .03 x .01 x .1, for a case really long covid rate of .00003.
.00003 x 6532 = .2 really long covid
.00001 x 6532 = .07 deaths
And given that you are primarily interacting with other unvaccinated, young individuals, you are less likely to be infected than the average vaccinated person. So the real number is probably less than .1 person getting covid beyond 12 weeks.
Even if all the Georgetown undergraduates were somehow infected by Delta
and
mRNA reduces these both by .9.
mRNA vaccines don’t decrease hospitalisation by .9 given someone has become infected, they decrease it by .9 compared to an unvaccinated person given typical community exposure. So I think your calculation is more like “Even if all the Georgetown undergraduates were exposed to Delta in a way which would be sufficient to infect them if they were unvaccinated”.
I would estimate that to get back to your original scenario we probably have to multiply by 3-5 (depending on how much of the resistance to hospitalisation you think is purely resistance to getting infected in the first place).
Assume really long covid scales similarly to death and hospitalization
This doesn’t at all feel obvious to me? At least, I’d put a decent (>20%) chance that this is not true. Eg Long COVID isn’t that correlated with hospitalisation
I expect that resistance to long covid is somewhere between resistance to infection and resistance to hospitalisation. This might roughly double the expected numbers of deaths / long covid.
Even if that is true, you would still get a) a lot of sickness & suffering, and b) infect a lot of other people (who infect further). So some people would be seriously ill and some would die as a result of this experiment.
The if long COVID usually clears up after eight weeks, that would definitely weaken my point (which would be good news!) I haven’t decided if it would change my overall stance on masking though
Even in a scenario where all unvaccinated people were infected with covid, I would expect none of the Georgetown undergraduates to die from covid or get covid longer than 12 weeks.
Here’s my fermi analysis:
in your 20s, covid CFR is .0001, compared to .01 for population as a whole.
covid longer than 12 weeks is .03 for covid population as a whole.
assume really long covid scales similarly to death and hospitalization
mRNA reduces these both by .9.
That gives us .03 x .01 x .1, for a case really long covid rate of .00003. .00003 x 6532 = .2 really long covid .00001 x 6532 = .07 deaths
And given that you are primarily interacting with other unvaccinated, young individuals, you are less likely to be infected than the average vaccinated person. So the real number is probably less than .1 person getting covid beyond 12 weeks.
Let me know if you see errors in my reasoning.
and
mRNA vaccines don’t decrease hospitalisation by .9 given someone has become infected, they decrease it by .9 compared to an unvaccinated person given typical community exposure. So I think your calculation is more like “Even if all the Georgetown undergraduates were exposed to Delta in a way which would be sufficient to infect them if they were unvaccinated”.
I would estimate that to get back to your original scenario we probably have to multiply by 3-5 (depending on how much of the resistance to hospitalisation you think is purely resistance to getting infected in the first place).
Good point! I’ll edit my fermi analysis to reflect that.
This doesn’t at all feel obvious to me? At least, I’d put a decent (>20%) chance that this is not true. Eg Long COVID isn’t that correlated with hospitalisation
Agreed.
I expect that resistance to long covid is somewhere between resistance to infection and resistance to hospitalisation. This might roughly double the expected numbers of deaths / long covid.
Even if that is true, you would still get a) a lot of sickness & suffering, and b) infect a lot of other people (who infect further). So some people would be seriously ill and some would die as a result of this experiment.