For example, 712 of 3700 people on DM became ill, which gives crude AR = 19.24 per cent.
(I think you meant DP for Diamond Princess)
This is a lower bound on the number infected. From what I understand, PCR viral detection peaks in the 80% to 90% range a few days after exposure, but then falls off to 20% or lower after about a week or two on average (but at some variable rate depending on immune interaction as you mention).
They didn’t test everyone quick or frequently enough such that the known case number is a tight bound on the true case number. From what we know on PCR false negative time curve, it seems likely that the true AR on DP is anywhere from 30% to as high as 60%.
If we model the PCR detection time curve as being age dependent (which seems reasonable), then that predicts that the AR was probably above 50% on the submarine and perhaps DP, it just wasn’t all detected. For the submarine in particular the population is probably skewed a bit younger/healthy and thus more mild/asymptomatic cases that fight it off quickly.
Most places in europe seem to be in or near mid sigmoid at this point (with the US probably not far behind), but it’s too early to tell whether that’s due to high AR and herd immunity or lower AR and social distancing.
The Kinsa data seems to suggest that the AR was on average only about on order flu AR, but perhaps higher in some hotspot cities (where the implied AR is perhaps larger than flu). That data also suggests social distancing & closures were effective, but there are some counterexamples (like miami ) where it seemed to peak naturally too early to explain by (late) social distancing.
There’s also the Japan mystery, which should have a high AR at this point. Right now the most likely explanations I can think of are either flu like severity/mortality that’s not that noticeable when you aren’t directly looking for it, or a strain difference.
Strain differences are *extremely* unlikely. No strain right now is more than about 40 nucleotides different from any other, all kinds of deep branches have gone all over the world, most countries have multiple branches from all over the tree, and there just hasn’t been enough time in an explovely expanding outbreak for much in the way of evolution to have occurred at all. Most of the observed mutations are silent anyway.
The first serological data on a set of close contacts of hospitalized cases found 16 PCR-positive cases and an additional 7 that developed antibodies but were not successfully caught with PCR tests. Some of which did develop symptoms.
Yes, DP. Lower sensitive of PCR means a lot more of very mild or asymptomatic cases on DM, which have no other manifestations (or people on DP concealed their illnesses).
(I think you meant DP for Diamond Princess)
This is a lower bound on the number infected. From what I understand, PCR viral detection peaks in the 80% to 90% range a few days after exposure, but then falls off to 20% or lower after about a week or two on average (but at some variable rate depending on immune interaction as you mention).
They didn’t test everyone quick or frequently enough such that the known case number is a tight bound on the true case number. From what we know on PCR false negative time curve, it seems likely that the true AR on DP is anywhere from 30% to as high as 60%.
If we model the PCR detection time curve as being age dependent (which seems reasonable), then that predicts that the AR was probably above 50% on the submarine and perhaps DP, it just wasn’t all detected. For the submarine in particular the population is probably skewed a bit younger/healthy and thus more mild/asymptomatic cases that fight it off quickly.
Most places in europe seem to be in or near mid sigmoid at this point (with the US probably not far behind), but it’s too early to tell whether that’s due to high AR and herd immunity or lower AR and social distancing.
The Kinsa data seems to suggest that the AR was on average only about on order flu AR, but perhaps higher in some hotspot cities (where the implied AR is perhaps larger than flu). That data also suggests social distancing & closures were effective, but there are some counterexamples (like miami ) where it seemed to peak naturally too early to explain by (late) social distancing.
There’s also the Japan mystery, which should have a high AR at this point. Right now the most likely explanations I can think of are either flu like severity/mortality that’s not that noticeable when you aren’t directly looking for it, or a strain difference.
Strain differences are *extremely* unlikely. No strain right now is more than about 40 nucleotides different from any other, all kinds of deep branches have gone all over the world, most countries have multiple branches from all over the tree, and there just hasn’t been enough time in an explovely expanding outbreak for much in the way of evolution to have occurred at all. Most of the observed mutations are silent anyway.
The first serological data on a set of close contacts of hospitalized cases found 16 PCR-positive cases and an additional 7 that developed antibodies but were not successfully caught with PCR tests. Some of which did develop symptoms.
Yes, DP. Lower sensitive of PCR means a lot more of very mild or asymptomatic cases on DM, which have no other manifestations (or people on DP concealed their illnesses).