The hypothesis that Kurzweil is basically right but off by 10 years (and thus, that these predictions will be mostly true in 2029) seems less plausible to me than the hypothesis that Kurzweil is basically right but thinks everything will happen twice as fast as it does (and thus, that these predictions will be mostly true in 2039). I’d give the first hypothesis about 15% credence and the second about 25%.
Personally, I don’t think there will be anything consistent like that; just some predictions right, some premature, some wrong. I note that most of the predictions seem to be of the type “once true, always true”.
The hypothesis that Kurzweil is basically right but off by 10 years (and thus, that these predictions will be mostly true in 2029) seems less plausible to me than the hypothesis that Kurzweil is basically right but thinks everything will happen twice as fast as it does (and thus, that these predictions will be mostly true in 2039). I’d give the first hypothesis about 15% credence and the second about 25%.
Edited my post to reflect this possibility.
Personally, I don’t think there will be anything consistent like that; just some predictions right, some premature, some wrong. I note that most of the predictions seem to be of the type “once true, always true”.