The “safe” bet is to have Janelle use Gamma. The distribution has a long tail and she already has a few (3/36) BLA results in the viable range. I give this strategy about 8.3% chance to succeed and at least some chance to dominate.
We could instead have Corazon use Gamma. We only have a few data points, but they could easily be from the same distribution as Janelle’s. Possibly a better chance to succeed/dominate, but could also be worse.
My third reasonable-sounding plan is to have Corazon use Zeta. Zeta is weird. Everyone has a very consistent “base” result, except sometimes they get zero instead, and sometimes they get an anomalously high result. E.g. Maria usually gets exactly 2.16, but sometimes gets 7.53 (or zero) instead. Janelle has a “base” of 0.93 and sometimes gets 3.24 (this would be a success, but I think using Gamma gives a better chance). Corazon appears to have a “base” result of 1.98, which is higher than Janelle’s and almost as high as Maria’s. Janelle got her high result 2⁄36 times, and Maria got hers 2⁄104 times. These are different enough that I think it’s likely that each pilot has a different chance of getting a high result, so maybe Corazon+Zeta would give a better chance than Janelle+Gamma.
I really hope that the Corazon+Zeta strategy is the best one. I think the puzzle would be better if the “obvious” Janelle+Gamma strategy is not optimal, but past experience with these has taught me that I shouldn’t over-think things, so I’m going to go with my first choice and have Janelle use Gamma Resonance. If it turns out that Corazon is better, then I’ll be pleasantly surprised (and probably dead).
The “safe” bet is to have Janelle use Gamma. The distribution has a long tail and she already has a few (3/36) BLA results in the viable range. I give this strategy about 8.3% chance to succeed and at least some chance to dominate.
We could instead have Corazon use Gamma. We only have a few data points, but they could easily be from the same distribution as Janelle’s. Possibly a better chance to succeed/dominate, but could also be worse.
My third reasonable-sounding plan is to have Corazon use Zeta. Zeta is weird. Everyone has a very consistent “base” result, except sometimes they get zero instead, and sometimes they get an anomalously high result. E.g. Maria usually gets exactly 2.16, but sometimes gets 7.53 (or zero) instead. Janelle has a “base” of 0.93 and sometimes gets 3.24 (this would be a success, but I think using Gamma gives a better chance). Corazon appears to have a “base” result of 1.98, which is higher than Janelle’s and almost as high as Maria’s. Janelle got her high result 2⁄36 times, and Maria got hers 2⁄104 times. These are different enough that I think it’s likely that each pilot has a different chance of getting a high result, so maybe Corazon+Zeta would give a better chance than Janelle+Gamma.
I really hope that the Corazon+Zeta strategy is the best one. I think the puzzle would be better if the “obvious” Janelle+Gamma strategy is not optimal, but past experience with these has taught me that I shouldn’t over-think things, so I’m going to go with my first choice and have Janelle use Gamma Resonance. If it turns out that Corazon is better, then I’ll be pleasantly surprised (and probably dead).