No, wedrifid is not committing one, you are. Here’s why:
He is not arguing that reality is subjective or anything like that. See his comment. On the other hand, your argument seems to be that we need to have some kind of surefire knowledge in epistemology because Bayesian probabilities are insufficient. Why does an epistemology with lack a of absolute certainty mean that said epistemology is not good enough?
But it most assuredly does color how Bayesian beliefs are formed.
What have you read or seen that makes you think this is the case?
I wonder if the word “belief” is causing problems here. Everyone in this thread is using the term to mean “statement or piece of knowledge to which you assign some level of truth value.” Saying “I believe X” is the same as saying “I think X is probably true.” Is this also how you’re using the term?
Without commenting on the specifics here, I object to this formulation because it’s possible both or neither are committing (particular fallacy), and it’s even more likely that of two parties, each is committing a different fallacy.
Without commenting on the specifics here, I object to this formulation because it’s possible both or neither are committing (particular fallacy), and it’s even more likely that of two parties, each is committing a different fallacy.
The formulation is fine. It is just two independent claims. It does not mean “wedrifid is not making an error because you are”.
The subject isn’t “an error”, it’s “the fallacy of gray”.
I agree “No, wedrifid is not committing an error, you are,” hardly implies “wedrifid is not making an error because you are”.
“No, wedrifid is not committing the fallacy of gray, you are,” much more implies “wedrifid is not committing the fallacy of gray because you are” when wedrifid’s and Logos01′s statements are in direct conflict.
The subject isn’t “an error”, it’s “the fallacy of gray”.
Why on earth does it matter that I referred to the general case? We’re discussing the implication of the general formulation which I hope you don’t consider to be a special case that only applies to “The Fallacy of The Grey”. But if we are going to be stickler’s then we should use the actual formulation you object to:
No, wedrifid is not committing one, you are.
“No, wedrifid is not committing the fallacy of gray, you are,” much more implies “wedrifid is not committing the fallacy of gray because you are” when wedrifid’s and Logos01′s statements are in direct conflict.
Not especially. This sort of thing is going to said most often regarding statements in direct conflict. There is no more relationship implied between the two than can be expected for any two claims being mentioned in the same sentence or paragraph.
The fact that it would be so easy to write “because” but they didn’t is also evidence against any assertion of a link. There is a limit to how much you can blame a writer for the theoretical possibility that a reader could make a blatant error of comprehension.
I didn’t really mean “because” in that sense, for two reasons. The first is that it is the observer’s knowledge that is caused, not the party’s error, and the other is that the causation implied goes the other way. Not “because” as if the first party’s non-error caused the second’s error, but that the observer can tell that the second party is in error because the observer can see that the first isn’t committing the particular error.
a special case...statements in direct conflict
Not special, but there is a sliding scale.
Compare:
“No, wedrifid is not committing the Prosecutor’s fallacy, you are.” Whether or not one party is committing this fallacy has basically nothing to do with whether or not the other is. So I interpret this statement to probably mean: You are wrong when you claim that wedrifid is committing the Prosecutor’s fallacy. Also, you are committing the Prosecutor’s fallacy.”
“No, wedrifid is not reversing cause and effect, you are.” Knowing that one party is not reversing cause and effect is enough to know someone accusing that party of doing so is likely doing so him or herself! So I interpret this statement to probably mean: “Because I see that wedrifid is not reversing cause and effect, I conclude that you are.”
The fallacy of gray is in between the two above examples.
“Fallacy of The Grey” returns two google hits referring to the fallacy of gray, one from this site (and zero hits for “fallacy of the gray”).
He is not arguing that reality is subjective or anything like that.
I didn’t say he was.
On the other hand, your argument seems to be that we need to have some kind of surefire knowledge in epistemology because Bayesian probabilities are insufficient.
No. I was saying that Bayesian probabilistic-belief methodologies are effective at generating maps but they say almost nothing about how those maps correlate to the territory. And that it is, basically, possible to make those assertions. The practices are not the same, and that is the key difference.
What have you read or seen that makes you think this is the case?
It is fundamental to the nature of Bayesian belief-networks that they always assert statements in the form of probabilities. It is impossible to state a Bayesian belief except in the form of a probability.
From this there is a necessary conclusion.
Everyone in this thread is using the term to mean “statement or piece of knowledge to which you assign some level of truth value.” Saying “I believe X” is the same as saying “I think X is probably true.” Is this also how you’re using the term?
No. There is a difference categorically between the position, “I believe X is probably true” and “I believe X is true.”
I was saying that Bayesian probabilistic-belief methodologies are effective at generating maps but they say almost nothing about how those maps correlate to the territory.
It is fundamental to the nature of Bayesian belief-networks that they always assert statements in the form of probabilities. It is impossible to state a Bayesian belief except in the form of a probability.
Right. So why do you think this is insufficient for making maps that correlate to the territory? What assertions do you want to make about the territory that are not captured by this model?
No. There is a difference categorically between the position, “I believe X is probably true” and “I believe X is true.”
Right, but on LW “I believe X” is generally meant as the former, not the latter. This is probably part of the reason for all of the confusion and disagreement in this thread.
Objecting to one, actually.
Not what it should be about, no. But it most assuredly does color how Bayesian beliefs are formed.
No, wedrifid is not committing one, you are. Here’s why:
He is not arguing that reality is subjective or anything like that. See his comment. On the other hand, your argument seems to be that we need to have some kind of surefire knowledge in epistemology because Bayesian probabilities are insufficient. Why does an epistemology with lack a of absolute certainty mean that said epistemology is not good enough?
What have you read or seen that makes you think this is the case?
I wonder if the word “belief” is causing problems here. Everyone in this thread is using the term to mean “statement or piece of knowledge to which you assign some level of truth value.” Saying “I believe X” is the same as saying “I think X is probably true.” Is this also how you’re using the term?
Without commenting on the specifics here, I object to this formulation because it’s possible both or neither are committing (particular fallacy), and it’s even more likely that of two parties, each is committing a different fallacy.
I didn’t mean to assert that it was an exclusive or, but I see how my wording implies that. Point taken and I’ll try to be more precise in the future.
The formulation is fine. It is just two independent claims. It does not mean “wedrifid is not making an error because you are”.
The subject isn’t “an error”, it’s “the fallacy of gray”.
I agree “No, wedrifid is not committing an error, you are,” hardly implies “wedrifid is not making an error because you are”.
“No, wedrifid is not committing the fallacy of gray, you are,” much more implies “wedrifid is not committing the fallacy of gray because you are” when wedrifid’s and Logos01′s statements are in direct conflict.
Why on earth does it matter that I referred to the general case? We’re discussing the implication of the general formulation which I hope you don’t consider to be a special case that only applies to “The Fallacy of The Grey”. But if we are going to be stickler’s then we should use the actual formulation you object to:
Not especially. This sort of thing is going to said most often regarding statements in direct conflict. There is no more relationship implied between the two than can be expected for any two claims being mentioned in the same sentence or paragraph.
The fact that it would be so easy to write “because” but they didn’t is also evidence against any assertion of a link. There is a limit to how much you can blame a writer for the theoretical possibility that a reader could make a blatant error of comprehension.
I didn’t really mean “because” in that sense, for two reasons. The first is that it is the observer’s knowledge that is caused, not the party’s error, and the other is that the causation implied goes the other way. Not “because” as if the first party’s non-error caused the second’s error, but that the observer can tell that the second party is in error because the observer can see that the first isn’t committing the particular error.
Not special, but there is a sliding scale.
Compare:
“No, wedrifid is not committing the Prosecutor’s fallacy, you are.” Whether or not one party is committing this fallacy has basically nothing to do with whether or not the other is. So I interpret this statement to probably mean: You are wrong when you claim that wedrifid is committing the Prosecutor’s fallacy. Also, you are committing the Prosecutor’s fallacy.”
“No, wedrifid is not reversing cause and effect, you are.” Knowing that one party is not reversing cause and effect is enough to know someone accusing that party of doing so is likely doing so him or herself! So I interpret this statement to probably mean: “Because I see that wedrifid is not reversing cause and effect, I conclude that you are.”
The fallacy of gray is in between the two above examples.
“Fallacy of The Grey” returns two google hits referring to the fallacy of gray, one from this site (and zero hits for “fallacy of the gray”).
This is actually the Fallacy of The Grey.
I didn’t say he was.
No. I was saying that Bayesian probabilistic-belief methodologies are effective at generating maps but they say almost nothing about how those maps correlate to the territory. And that it is, basically, possible to make those assertions. The practices are not the same, and that is the key difference.
It is fundamental to the nature of Bayesian belief-networks that they always assert statements in the form of probabilities. It is impossible to state a Bayesian belief except in the form of a probability.
From this there is a necessary conclusion.
No. There is a difference categorically between the position, “I believe X is probably true” and “I believe X is true.”
What does this mean?
Right. So why do you think this is insufficient for making maps that correlate to the territory? What assertions do you want to make about the territory that are not captured by this model?
Right, but on LW “I believe X” is generally meant as the former, not the latter. This is probably part of the reason for all of the confusion and disagreement in this thread.