True enough, I guess. I do wonder how to reconcile the two views though, because the approach you describe that allows you to update in case of a basic game is actively worse for the second kind of game (the one with the blanks). In that case, using the approach I suggested actually produces a peaked probability distribution on b that eventually converges to the correct value (well, on average). Meanwhile just looking at survival produces exactly the same monotonically decaying power law. If the latter potentially is useful information, I wonder how one might integrate the two.
True enough, I guess. I do wonder how to reconcile the two views though, because the approach you describe that allows you to update in case of a basic game is actively worse for the second kind of game (the one with the blanks). In that case, using the approach I suggested actually produces a peaked probability distribution on b that eventually converges to the correct value (well, on average). Meanwhile just looking at survival produces exactly the same monotonically decaying power law. If the latter potentially is useful information, I wonder how one might integrate the two.