Well, yes and no. The Secret of Our Success was indeed one of the things I thought about when I wrote that some of this has been addressed. But a handful of blog posts on this one problem don’t constitute a new level (a paradigm, if you wish). Most of his other posts that became canon don’t really go out of Eliezer’s paradigm, they just expand it incredibly well.
We will know we’ve fully entered the new level/paradigm when we have a new Canon that answers all of these questions (and probably a few more) to some degree of completeness (having a canon also points to the need to have a certain level of consensus and common knowledge). The new level of rationality will be as distinct from Eliezer’s level as Eliezer’s level was distinct from the Feynman-Sagen level.
I think the informational value of tradition, and the progress-conservation tension, is indeed where we came farthest, and we mostly just need to collect everything that was written and distill it so it can become part of a future canon. After that, I think we came farthest on having an improved understanding of biases, but there’s still some distance to go.
Other than that, I think we’re quite far from a satisfying answer to the other problems, and so we’re quite far from fully entering the next level.
Well, yes and no. The Secret of Our Success was indeed one of the things I thought about when I wrote that some of this has been addressed. But a handful of blog posts on this one problem don’t constitute a new level (a paradigm, if you wish). Most of his other posts that became canon don’t really go out of Eliezer’s paradigm, they just expand it incredibly well.
We will know we’ve fully entered the new level/paradigm when we have a new Canon that answers all of these questions (and probably a few more) to some degree of completeness (having a canon also points to the need to have a certain level of consensus and common knowledge). The new level of rationality will be as distinct from Eliezer’s level as Eliezer’s level was distinct from the Feynman-Sagen level.
I think the informational value of tradition, and the progress-conservation tension, is indeed where we came farthest, and we mostly just need to collect everything that was written and distill it so it can become part of a future canon. After that, I think we came farthest on having an improved understanding of biases, but there’s still some distance to go.
Other than that, I think we’re quite far from a satisfying answer to the other problems, and so we’re quite far from fully entering the next level.