Note that the pooled prevalence is 24% (CI 18-31). But it differs a lot across studies, symptoms, and location. In the individual studies, the range is really from zero to 50% (or rather to 38% if you exclude a study with only 6 participants). I think a suitable reference class would be the University of California which has 3,190 participants and a prevalence of 38%.
Sorry, am I misunderstanding something? I think taking “clinically significant symptoms”, specific to the UC system, as a given is wrong because it did not directly address either of my two criticisms:
1. Clinically significant symptoms =/= clinically diagnosed even in worlds where there is a 1:1 relationship between clinically significant symptoms and would have been clinically diagnosed, as many people do not get diagnosed
2. Clinically significant symptoms do not have a 1:1 relationship with would have been clinically diagnosed.
Well, I agree that the actual prevalence you have in mind would be roughly half of 38% i.e. ~20%. That is still much higher than the 12% you arrived at. And either value is so high that there is little surprise some severe episodes of some people happened in a 5-year frame.
The UC Berkeley study was the one that I had cached in my mind as generating this number. I will reread it later today to make sure that it’s right, but it sure seems like the most relevant reference class, given the same physical location.
I had a look at the situation in Germany and it doesn’t look much better. 17% of students are diagnosed with at least one psychical disorder. This is based on the health records of all students insured by one of the largest public health insurers in Germany (about ten percent of the population):
Note that the pooled prevalence is 24% (CI 18-31). But it differs a lot across studies, symptoms, and location. In the individual studies, the range is really from zero to 50% (or rather to 38% if you exclude a study with only 6 participants). I think a suitable reference class would be the University of California which has 3,190 participants and a prevalence of 38%.
Sorry, am I misunderstanding something? I think taking “clinically significant symptoms”, specific to the UC system, as a given is wrong because it did not directly address either of my two criticisms:
1. Clinically significant symptoms =/= clinically diagnosed even in worlds where there is a 1:1 relationship between clinically significant symptoms and would have been clinically diagnosed, as many people do not get diagnosed
2. Clinically significant symptoms do not have a 1:1 relationship with would have been clinically diagnosed.
Well, I agree that the actual prevalence you have in mind would be roughly half of 38% i.e. ~20%. That is still much higher than the 12% you arrived at. And either value is so high that there is little surprise some severe episodes of some people happened in a 5-year frame.
The UC Berkeley study was the one that I had cached in my mind as generating this number. I will reread it later today to make sure that it’s right, but it sure seems like the most relevant reference class, given the same physical location.
I had a look at the situation in Germany and it doesn’t look much better. 17% of students are diagnosed with at least one psychical disorder. This is based on the health records of all students insured by one of the largest public health insurers in Germany (about ten percent of the population):
https://www.barmer.de/blob/144368/08f7b513fdb6f06703c6e9765ee9375f/data/dl-barmer-arztreport-2018.pdf