This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.
I find that this conclusion does not follow from the main result of the paper …. It is quite possible that in our universe there is a Great Filter “by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe,” because, for example one specific parameter has the value that is many orders of magnitude lower than the estimate, and it would be really useful to know which one and why. ”
I think you are in fact in agreement with SDOs intended meaning. They are saying there is no need to explain why ETIs are hidden from our observations, as would be the case if we believed the initial interpretation of the Drake equation of there being many ETIs. They are doing away with the ‘aliens transcended’ or choose not to talk with us class of hypotheses. But their analysis still says some of the factors in the equation must be very low to filter out all the places ETIs could have evolved.
The ‘paradox’ was ‘they should be here, why aren’t they?’, which is dissolved as the first part is not true. Now it is only a question of the actual values of the Drake equation factors
The ‘paradox’ was ‘they should be here, why aren’t they?’, which is dissolved as the first part is not true. Now it is only a question of the actual values of the Drake equation factors
Not sure if this paper has more content than “there are so many uncertainties in the factors, the odds of several of them being much smaller than the current best guesses is large enough to make a lifeless universe likely and we are apparently living in one of those”. But yes, the “should be here” part goes away if you pay attention to all the uncertainties.
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I find that this conclusion does not follow from the main result of the paper …. It is quite possible that in our universe there is a Great Filter “by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe,” because, for example one specific parameter has the value that is many orders of magnitude lower than the estimate, and it would be really useful to know which one and why. ”
I think you are in fact in agreement with SDOs intended meaning. They are saying there is no need to explain why ETIs are hidden from our observations, as would be the case if we believed the initial interpretation of the Drake equation of there being many ETIs. They are doing away with the ‘aliens transcended’ or choose not to talk with us class of hypotheses. But their analysis still says some of the factors in the equation must be very low to filter out all the places ETIs could have evolved.
The ‘paradox’ was ‘they should be here, why aren’t they?’, which is dissolved as the first part is not true. Now it is only a question of the actual values of the Drake equation factors
Not sure if this paper has more content than “there are so many uncertainties in the factors, the odds of several of them being much smaller than the current best guesses is large enough to make a lifeless universe likely and we are apparently living in one of those”. But yes, the “should be here” part goes away if you pay attention to all the uncertainties.