I think Tsvi is quite mistaken about the speed we are likely to see AGI develop at. I expect AGI by 2028 with ~95% probability. He does not. Maybe we should dialogue about this?
“Endpoints are easier to predict than trajectories”; eventual singularity is such an endpoint; on our current trajectory, the person who is going to do it does not necessarily know they are going to do it until it is done.
I think Tsvi is quite mistaken about the speed we are likely to see AGI develop at. I expect AGI by 2028 with ~95% probability. He does not. Maybe we should dialogue about this?
Sure, though if you’re just going to say “I know how to do it! Also I won’t tell you!” then it doesn’t seem very pointful?
“Endpoints are easier to predict than trajectories”; eventual singularity is such an endpoint; on our current trajectory, the person who is going to do it does not necessarily know they are going to do it until it is done.
According to…? Can you link the proof?