I just think that these are important concepts to distinguish because I think it’s useful to notice the extent to which problems could be solved by moderate amount of coordination and which asks could suffice for safety.
I wasn’t particularly trying to make a broader claim, just trying to highlight something that seemed important.
My overall guess is that people paying costs equivalent to 2 years of delay for existential safety reasons is about 50% likely. (Though I’m uncertain overall and this is possible to influence.) Thus, ensuring that the plan for spending that budget is as good as possible looks quite good. And not hopeless overall.
By analogy, note that google bears substantial costs to improve security (e.g. running 10% slower).
I think that if we could ensure the implementation of our best safety plans which just cost a few years of delay, we’d be in a much better position.
I just think that these are important concepts to distinguish because I think it’s useful to notice the extent to which problems could be solved by moderate amount of coordination and which asks could suffice for safety.
I wasn’t particularly trying to make a broader claim, just trying to highlight something that seemed important.
My overall guess is that people paying costs equivalent to 2 years of delay for existential safety reasons is about 50% likely. (Though I’m uncertain overall and this is possible to influence.) Thus, ensuring that the plan for spending that budget is as good as possible looks quite good. And not hopeless overall.
By analogy, note that google bears substantial costs to improve security (e.g. running 10% slower).
I think that if we could ensure the implementation of our best safety plans which just cost a few years of delay, we’d be in a much better position.