Fermilike considerations… epically unlikely that life emerges all the way to superintelligence takeoff
I don’t follow. Do you think intelligences would loudly announce their existence over a long enough time period such that we would know about it? It always struck me as more likely that AGIs were quiet than that they didn’t exist. Remember, all those stars you see at night don’t necessarily exist; could just as easily be an illusion. All it’d take is for one superintelligence to show up somewhere and decide that we weren’t worth killing but that we shouldn’t get to see what’s actually going on as it gobbles all the unoccupied planets. There are various reasons it would want to do this. [ETA: The alternative, that abiogenesis is really difficult, strikes me as unlikely, and I have a very strong skepticism of anthropic “explanations”.]
There are heaps of other superintelligences, with high probability all the other ones are in parts of the (broadly used) Universe that are causally inaccessible
Hm, this might be a difference of perspective; I’m not very confident in the simulation argument as it’s usually put forth. (I tried to explain some of my reasons elsewhere in this thread.)
So you think there are other FAIs out there that our civilization would encounter if we got that far? How much does this depend on probability that we are in a simulation or under the benevolent (or otherwise) control of a powerful agent and how likely would you consider it to be conditional on us not being simulated/overseen?
(They don’t have to be Friendly, they just have to be willing to trade.) I don’t have a strong opinion either way. If we’re being overseen then it seems true by definition that we’ll run into other AGIs if we build an FAI, so I was focusing on the scenario where we’re not being overseen/simulated/fucked-with. In such a scenario I don’t know what probability to put on it… I’ll think about it more.
If we’re being overseen then it seems true by definition that we’ll run into other AGIs if we build an FAI
This seems likely but is not true by definition. In fact if I were designing and overseer I can see reasons why I may prefer to design one that keeps itself hidden except where intervention is required. Such an overseer, upon detecting that the overseen have created an AI with an acceptable goal system, may actively destroy all evidence of its existence.
True, mea culpa. I swear, there’s something about the words “by definition” that makes you misuse them even if you’re already aware of how often they’re misused. I almost never say “by definition” and yet it still screwed me over.
The alternative, that abiogenesis is really difficult, strikes me as unlikely, and I have a very strong skepticism of anthropic “explanations”.
I keep running into people who think anthropic reasoning doesn’t explain anything, or that have it entirely backwards. One prominent physicist whose name eludes me commented in an editorial published in physics today that anthropic reasoning was worthless unless the life-compatible section of the probability distribution of universal laws was especially likely. This so utterly misses the point that he clearly didn’t understand the basic argument.
I’ve never encountered anyone who’s willing to admit to buying anything stronger than the weak anthropic principle, which seems utterly obviously true:
1) If the universe didn’t enable the formation of sapient life, it wouldn’t exist (edited to clarify: sapient life, not the universe). If the universe made the formation of such life fantastically unlikely in any one location but the extent of the universe is larger than the reciprocal of that probability density, it would likely exist.
2) Our existence thus doesn’t indicate much about the general hospitability of the rules of the universe to the formation of sapient life, because the universe is awfully large, possibly infinite.
3) In the event that the rules of the universe that we observe are consequences of more fundamental laws, and those fundamental laws are quantum mechanical in nature so that multiple variants get a nonzero component, then the probability of life forming in this universe is taken as the OR among all of those variants.
There are heaps of other superintelligences, with high probability all the other ones are in parts of the (broadly used) Universe that are causally inaccessible
Hm, this might be a difference of perspective; I’m not very confident in the simulation argument as it’s usually put forth. (I tried to explain some of my reasons elsewhere in this thread.)
Is there a typo in there? The simulation argument doesn’t seem to fit.
I don’t follow. Do you think intelligences would loudly announce their existence over a long enough time period such that we would know about it? It always struck me as more likely that AGIs were quiet than that they didn’t exist. Remember, all those stars you see at night don’t necessarily exist; could just as easily be an illusion. All it’d take is for one superintelligence to show up somewhere and decide that we weren’t worth killing but that we shouldn’t get to see what’s actually going on as it gobbles all the unoccupied planets. There are various reasons it would want to do this. [ETA: The alternative, that abiogenesis is really difficult, strikes me as unlikely, and I have a very strong skepticism of anthropic “explanations”.]
Hm, this might be a difference of perspective; I’m not very confident in the simulation argument as it’s usually put forth. (I tried to explain some of my reasons elsewhere in this thread.)
(They don’t have to be Friendly, they just have to be willing to trade.) I don’t have a strong opinion either way. If we’re being overseen then it seems true by definition that we’ll run into other AGIs if we build an FAI, so I was focusing on the scenario where we’re not being overseen/simulated/fucked-with. In such a scenario I don’t know what probability to put on it… I’ll think about it more.
This seems likely but is not true by definition. In fact if I were designing and overseer I can see reasons why I may prefer to design one that keeps itself hidden except where intervention is required. Such an overseer, upon detecting that the overseen have created an AI with an acceptable goal system, may actively destroy all evidence of its existence.
True, mea culpa. I swear, there’s something about the words “by definition” that makes you misuse them even if you’re already aware of how often they’re misused. I almost never say “by definition” and yet it still screwed me over.
I keep running into people who think anthropic reasoning doesn’t explain anything, or that have it entirely backwards. One prominent physicist whose name eludes me commented in an editorial published in physics today that anthropic reasoning was worthless unless the life-compatible section of the probability distribution of universal laws was especially likely. This so utterly misses the point that he clearly didn’t understand the basic argument.
I’ve never encountered anyone who’s willing to admit to buying anything stronger than the weak anthropic principle, which seems utterly obviously true:
1) If the universe didn’t enable the formation of sapient life, it wouldn’t exist (edited to clarify: sapient life, not the universe). If the universe made the formation of such life fantastically unlikely in any one location but the extent of the universe is larger than the reciprocal of that probability density, it would likely exist.
2) Our existence thus doesn’t indicate much about the general hospitability of the rules of the universe to the formation of sapient life, because the universe is awfully large, possibly infinite.
3) In the event that the rules of the universe that we observe are consequences of more fundamental laws, and those fundamental laws are quantum mechanical in nature so that multiple variants get a nonzero component, then the probability of life forming in this universe is taken as the OR among all of those variants.
That’s really all there is to it...
Is there a typo in there? The simulation argument doesn’t seem to fit.
Oh, I was assuming… never mind, it’s probably not worth untangling.