Yes, the Japanese don’t fear AIs as the Americans do. But also, most of the recent main progress in AI has been done in the Western world. It makes sense to me that the ones at the forefront of the technology are also the ones who spot dangers early on.
Also, since superficial factors have a sway on you (not a criticism, it’s a good heuristic if you don’t have much time/resources to spend on studying the subject deeper), the ones who show the most understanding of the topic and/or general competence by getting at the forefront should have bonus credibility, shouldn’t they?
Nor, for that matter, would I be so quick to dismiss the Japanese experience. They may not the the source of the most recent advances, but they certainly know about them and they do have sophisticated computer technology. For example, the Supercomputer Fugaku is currently the 2nd largest in the world. Arguably they have more experience in developing humanoid robots. But their overall culture is different.
″...the ones who show the most understanding of the topic and/or general competence …”
Umm, err there’s all kinds of competence in this world. My competence is in the human mind and culture, with a heavy dose of neuroscience and old-style computational linguistics and semantics. Read my working paper, GPT-3: Waterloo or Rubicon? Here be Dragons, to get some idea of why I don’t think we’re anywhere near producing human-level AI, much less AI with the will and means to wreak havoc on human civilization. As for American culture, try this, From “Forbidden Planet” to “The Terminator”: 1950s techno-utopia and the dystopian future.
Of course, to anyone who has studied the question in depth, that’s a bad argument, but I’m trying to taylor my reply to someone who claims (direct quote of the first 2 sentences) being inclined to think that fear of rogue AI is a product of American culture if it doesn’t exist outside of the USA.
Nothing aggressive with noting that it’s a superficial factor. Maybe it would have come off better if I had use the LW term “outside view”, but it only came back to me now.
Yes, I certainly take an “outside view.” But there are many “in depth” considerations that are relevant to these questions. If you are really insisting that the only views that matter are inside views, well, that sounds more like religion than rational consideration.
Yes, the Japanese don’t fear AIs as the Americans do. But also, most of the recent main progress in AI has been done in the Western world. It makes sense to me that the ones at the forefront of the technology are also the ones who spot dangers early on.
Also, since superficial factors have a sway on you (not a criticism, it’s a good heuristic if you don’t have much time/resources to spend on studying the subject deeper), the ones who show the most understanding of the topic and/or general competence by getting at the forefront should have bonus credibility, shouldn’t they?
Nor, for that matter, would I be so quick to dismiss the Japanese experience. They may not the the source of the most recent advances, but they certainly know about them and they do have sophisticated computer technology. For example, the Supercomputer Fugaku is currently the 2nd largest in the world. Arguably they have more experience in developing humanoid robots. But their overall culture is different.
″...the ones who show the most understanding of the topic and/or general competence …”
Umm, err there’s all kinds of competence in this world. My competence is in the human mind and culture, with a heavy dose of neuroscience and old-style computational linguistics and semantics. Read my working paper, GPT-3: Waterloo or Rubicon? Here be Dragons, to get some idea of why I don’t think we’re anywhere near producing human-level AI, much less AI with the will and means to wreak havoc on human civilization. As for American culture, try this, From “Forbidden Planet” to “The Terminator”: 1950s techno-utopia and the dystopian future.
That’s a pretty bad argument of authority, with an agressive undertone (“superficial factors have a sway on you”)
Of course, to anyone who has studied the question in depth, that’s a bad argument, but I’m trying to taylor my reply to someone who claims (direct quote of the first 2 sentences) being inclined to think that fear of rogue AI is a product of American culture if it doesn’t exist outside of the USA.
Nothing aggressive with noting that it’s a superficial factor. Maybe it would have come off better if I had use the LW term “outside view”, but it only came back to me now.
Yes, I certainly take an “outside view.” But there are many “in depth” considerations that are relevant to these questions. If you are really insisting that the only views that matter are inside views, well, that sounds more like religion than rational consideration.
If I did, why would I have replied to your outside view argument with another outside view argument?
If you had said “you hold inside view to be generally more accurate than outside view”, well yeah, I don’t think that’s disputed here.