The state of the geopolitical board will influence how the pre-ASI chaos unfolds, and how the pre-ASI AGIs behave. Less plausibly intentions of the humans in charge might influence something about the path-dependent characteristics of ASI (by the time it takes control). But given the state of the “science” and lack of the will to be appropriately cautious and wait a few centuries before taking the leap, it seems more likely that the outcome will be randomly sampled from approximately the same distribution regardless of who sets off the intelligence explosion.
The state of the geopolitical board will influence how the pre-ASI chaos unfolds, and how the pre-ASI AGIs behave. Less plausibly intentions of the humans in charge might influence something about the path-dependent characteristics of ASI (by the time it takes control). But given the state of the “science” and lack of the will to be appropriately cautious and wait a few centuries before taking the leap, it seems more likely that the outcome will be randomly sampled from approximately the same distribution regardless of who sets off the intelligence explosion.