The post makes clear that two very different models of the world will lead to very different action steps, and the “average” of those steps isn’t what follows the average of probabilities. See how the previous sentence felt awkward and technical, compared to the story? Sure, it’s much longer, but the point gets across better, that’s the value. I have added this story to my collection of useful parables.
Re-reading it, the language remains technical, one needs to understand a bit more probability theory to get the latter parts. I would like to see a retelling of the story, same points, different style, to test if it speaks to a different audience.
The post makes clear that two very different models of the world will lead to very different action steps, and the “average” of those steps isn’t what follows the average of probabilities. See how the previous sentence felt awkward and technical, compared to the story? Sure, it’s much longer, but the point gets across better, that’s the value. I have added this story to my collection of useful parables.
Re-reading it, the language remains technical, one needs to understand a bit more probability theory to get the latter parts. I would like to see a retelling of the story, same points, different style, to test if it speaks to a different audience.