Did this incident change your expected-value calculations about following such orders in the future? Was there a surprise (and subsequent bayesean update of your beliefs) from any of:
a) the order being confirmed by the higher-ups
b) your immediate superiors following THEIR orders in ordering you to go back
c) your teammates’ willingness to follow this order
a) Confidence in the ability and good faith of the small group of people in a position to issue the order went down. In particular, my estimation of their ability to understand risks and trade-offs.
b) No change. This was expected.
c) No change. This was expected. I would also like to flag this as the point that appears to be the largest inferential gulf between most of the audience and I.
d) Confidence in the hardware went up, confidence that my buddies would live through future engagements went up as a result. I’ve ridden in two prior generations of vehicle, and the odds of there being no fatalities in either approaches zero in my estimation. The progress of the MRAP series of vehicles is on the short list of success stories from those wars. Also, I updated in favor of seatbelts.
It is worth mentioning I had no notion of Bayes at the time of this event.
Did this incident change your expected-value calculations about following such orders in the future? Was there a surprise (and subsequent bayesean update of your beliefs) from any of:
a) the order being confirmed by the higher-ups
b) your immediate superiors following THEIR orders in ordering you to go back
c) your teammates’ willingness to follow this order
d) the actual outcome (blown up, survived)
a) Confidence in the ability and good faith of the small group of people in a position to issue the order went down. In particular, my estimation of their ability to understand risks and trade-offs.
b) No change. This was expected.
c) No change. This was expected. I would also like to flag this as the point that appears to be the largest inferential gulf between most of the audience and I.
d) Confidence in the hardware went up, confidence that my buddies would live through future engagements went up as a result. I’ve ridden in two prior generations of vehicle, and the odds of there being no fatalities in either approaches zero in my estimation. The progress of the MRAP series of vehicles is on the short list of success stories from those wars. Also, I updated in favor of seatbelts.
It is worth mentioning I had no notion of Bayes at the time of this event.